Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 6

August 6, 2013 01:41 AM
 

Tuesday, August 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, there was more upbeat economic data
coming out of the European Union Tuesday. Germany’s
manufactured goods orders increased by 3.8% in June versus
May. However, European stock markets languished in quiet,
summertime trading. Asian stock markets were mostly weaker
in dull trading as the world market place awaits fresh macro
inputs. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its main interest
rate by 0.25%, to a record low of 2.5% on Tuesday. With many
Europeans and North Americans on summer holidays and with
the "dog days" of summer on the doorstep, trading volumes in
many markets may dwindle until after the U.S. Labor Day
holiday in early September.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today and
hovering near last week’s all-time record high. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
record high of 1,705.00 and then at 1,715.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,685.00 and then at
1,677.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
and hovering near Monday’s 12-year high. The bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the Monday’s high of
3,140.25 and then at 3,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Monday’s low of 3,128.00 and then at last Friday’s
low of 3,112.25. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on mild
profit taking after hitting a record high late last week.
Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
last Monday’s high of 15,573 and then at the record high of
15,600. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Monday’s low of 15,525 and then at 15,500.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early
today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage as prices hover near the recent contract low.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133
13/32 and then at this week’s high of 133 28/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at this week’s low of 133 26/32 and
then at 133 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early
today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 126.15.5 and then at this week’s high of 126.20.5.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
126.06.0 and then at 126.00.0 Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 82.015 and then at this
week’s high of 82.160. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 81.710 and then at last week’s low of
81.480. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. However, if
prices back off this week a bearish double-top reversal
pattern would form on the daily bar chart. In September
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $107.50 and then at $108.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $106.00 and then at
this week’s low of $105.70. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Not much
new. Weekly crop progress reports late Monday showed pretty
decent corn and soybean crops in the U.S. Corn Belt. The
grain market bears are in firm near-term technical command.
The U.S. Corn Belt weather remains non-threatening for the
corn and soybean crops, which is bearish. The next major
data points for the grain markets are likely to be the
monthly USDA supply and demand report, out next week, and
the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour in late-August. It’s my
bias that corn prices around the $4.50 level would be a
longer-term value-buying opportunity.



 

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