Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 7

August 7, 2013 01:37 AM
 

Wednesday, August 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, German industrial production rose by 2.4%
in June from May, following a 0.8% decline in May. The
growth rate was forecast at up 0.3% on the month. This
latest report continues a recent string of upbeat German
economic data that suggests the European Union’s largest
economy is well on its way to recovery. The Bank of England
said Wednesday in its quarterly inflation report that it
will keep its interest rates ultra-low and keep purchasing
gilts until the U.K’s unemployment rate drops to 7%.
However, BOE governor Mark Carney would not promise rates
would not rise in the coming few years. The British stock
market dropped on Carney’s remarks. U.S. economic data due
for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage
applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks
report, and consumer installment credit.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today on mild
profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,693.20 and then at the record high of 1,705.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,677.00 and then at
1,670.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
on mild profit taking. The bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at the overnight high of
3,119.50 and then at this week’s high of 3,140.25. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 3,100.00 and then at 3,075.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on mild profit
taking. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 15,500 and then at this week’s high of 15,573.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
15,400 and then at 15,345. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on
short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 133 21/32 and then at this week’s high of
133 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
133 6/32 and then at this week’s low of 132 25/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early
today on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s high of 126.20.5 and then at 126.24.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at this week’s low of 126.06.0 and
then at 126.00.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.880 and then at this
week’s high of 82.160. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 81.530 and then at last week’s low of
81.480. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, if prices
back off this week a bearish double-top reversal pattern
would form on the daily bar chart. In September Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$106.00 and then at $106.50. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at this week’s low of $104.86 and then at
$104.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Not much
new. The grain market bears remain in solid technical
command. The U.S. Corn Belt weather remains non-threatening
for the corn and soybean crops, which is bearish. The next
major data points for the grain markets are likely to be
the monthly USDA supply and demand report, out next week,
and the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour in late-August. My
bias is that the downside is somewhat limited in the grain
markets, what with prices beaten down hard recently.
 

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