Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 8

August 8, 2013 01:54 AM
 

Thursday, August 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Chinese economic data released overnight was bullish for
most of the market place and especially for the raw
commodity sector. China exports were up a much higher than
expected 5.1% year-on-year in July, compared to a 3.1% drop
in June. Chinese imports rose by a much higher than expected
11%, year-on-year. The European Central Bank released a
forecast Thursday that shows it expects Euro zone economic
growth to contract by 0.6% in 2013, citing weak consumer
demand worldwide. The ECB forecast Euro zone growth in 2014
at up 0.9%. The ECB report comes out at a time when recent
Euro zone economic data has shown generally slight
improvement. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday
includes the weekly jobless claims report and the ICSC chain
store trends report.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
record high of 1,705.00 and then at 1,715.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,688.30 and then at this week’s low of 1,680.80. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The
bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week’s
high of 3,140.25 and then at 3,150.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 3,116.00 and then at
3,100.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today. Bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at this week’s high of
15,573 and then at the record high of 15,600. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 15,444 and
then at 15,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early
today on more short covering. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 134 15/32 and then
at 135 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 133 27/32 and then at 133 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early
today on more short covering. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight high of 126.29.0 and then at
127.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.16.0 and then at
this week’s low of 126.06.0 Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading and hit another fresh six-week low overnight. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 81.395 and then at 81.500. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.115 and then
at 81.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded this
week. If prices back off the rest of this week then a
bearish double-top reversal pattern would form on the daily
bar chart. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $105.00 and then at $105.50.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $104.00
and then at $103.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering
in bear markets. The grain market bears remain in solid
technical command. However, it’s now my bias that there is
not strong downside price pressure left in the grain
markets, after their recent beating. The next major data
points for the grain markets are likely to be the monthly
USDA supply and demand report, out next Monday, and the Pro
Farmer Midwest crop tour in late-August.
 

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