Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 26

December 26, 2013 01:04 AM
 

Thursday, December 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It was quiet in the markets overnight, the day after the
Christmas holiday. Look for thin volumes and lackluster
trading conditions on Friday and most of next week.

The U.S. stock indexes continue on their bull runs, with new
record or multi-year highs scored again in overnight
trading. The strength in equities markets worldwide has
"sucked all the air out of the room" for other investment
asset classes. This situation cannot go on indefinitely, but
that is presently of little comfort to the bulls in other
asset classes.

China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 7.6% in 2013, a
central planning official said Thursday. That is just above
what the Chinese government forecast the growth rate to be.
However, the Chinese stock market dropped overnight on
continued worried about higher short-term interest rates in
China.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the
weekly jobless claims report.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (No major headline risk
today, as holidays are keeping many traders and investors
away and making trading volumes thin.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S.
trading and poked to another record high overnight. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the overnight record high of 1,832.00 and then at 1,840.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at this week’s
low of 1,817.10 and then at 1,800.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today and
poked to another 13-year high overnight. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 3,578.75 and then at 3,600.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 3,570.50 and then at
Tuesday’s low of 3,561.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit another
record high overnight. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 16,400 and then at 16,450. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,300
and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,245. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. The
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as
prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 129 even and
then at Tuesday’s high of 129 19/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies
at the overnight low of 128 17/32 and then at 128 13/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today and
hit a fresh 3.5-month low overnight. Prices are in a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.08.0 and then at
Tuesday’s high of 123.17.5. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 122.30.0 and then at 122.24.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. The
greenback bulls have recently gained some upside momentum,
but need to show more power soon to keep it. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
Tuesday’s high of 80.780 and then at last week’s high of
81.005. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of
80.630 and then at this week’s low of 80.460. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are near steady early today
but did hit a two-month high overnight. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. In February Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $99.65 and then at $100.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low
of $98.53 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were closed overnight due to the Christmas holiday.
Grain markets have seen the holiday doldrums set in.
Technically, corn and wheat futures bears are in full
control. Soybean bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage.
 

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