Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 27

December 27, 2013 12:43 AM
 

Friday, December 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The feature in the market place overnight is a slumping U.S.
dollar index, which is sharply lower and poised to close at
a seven-week low close Friday, amid no apparent new
fundamental development behind the strong price move.

China’s stock market rose overnight on easing concerns about
higher short-term interest rates in China. Japan’s Nikkei
index saw some profit taking after hitting a six-year high
this week.

Otherwise, it was mostly quiet in the markets overnight,
amid the holiday season. Look for generally thin volumes and
lackluster trading conditions Friday and for most of next
week.

The geopolitical situation worldwide remains relatively
calm. That condition is not likely to persist and one has to
wonder where and when the next flare-up will occur.

The U.S. economic calendar is light Friday and includes the
weekly DOE energy stocks report.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (No major headline risk
today, as holidays are keeping many traders and investors
away and making trading volumes thin.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.
trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a record high
on Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and
18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s
record high of 1,837.50 and then at 1,850.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Thursday’s low of
1,829.60 and then at 1,815.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today
and poked to another 13-year high overnight. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 3,584.50 and then at 3,600.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,568.25 and
then at Tuesday’s low of 3,561.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and
poked to another record high overnight. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 16,450 and then at
16,500. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 16,400 and then at Thursday’s low of 16,350.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and
hovering near the contract low. The bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a
two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 128 24/32 and then
at 129 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract
low of 128 1/32 and then at 127 24/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today
and hovering near Thursday’s 3.5-month low. Prices are in a
two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 123.07.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 123.17.5. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 122.29.0 and
then at 122.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is sharply lower early today.
The greenback bears have regained downside momentum. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
80.250 and then at 80.500. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 79.82 and then at the December low of
79.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher early
today and hit a two-month high overnight. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. In February Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $99.77 and then at $100.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $99.00 and then
at this week’s low of $98.53. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on a short covering bounce
following selling pressure on Thursday. Worries about
Chinese demand for U.S. corn and soybeans, amid recent
rejections of U.S. shipments, is bearish. Also, South
American growing weather in corn and soybean regions is
mostly favorable, and that’s bearish for futures prices.
Technically, corn and wheat futures bears are in full
control. Soybean bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage, but have faded.
 

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