Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 30

December 30, 2013 12:57 AM
 

Monday, December 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

NOTE: I am out of the office this week. My friend and fellow market
analyst Ken Seehusen will produce my reports. I’ll be back at work full
throttle next Monday morning. Happy New Year!--Jim

The STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates
some of last Friday’s setback. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If March extends this year’s rally, monthly
resistance crossing at 3668.00 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 3505.73 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted and would then open the door for
additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last Friday’s high
crossing at 3587.50. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at
3668.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3505.73.
Second support is December’s low crossing at 3415.25.

The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it extends this
year’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral
to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If March extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory,
upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1799.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 1839.70.
Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1799.41. Second support is December’s low crossing at
1755.00.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds were slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of
last week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but
remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March renews the decline off October’s high, weekly
support crossing at 125-29 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 129-10 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 129-10. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 130-11. First support is December’s low crossing at 128-01.
Second support is weekly support crossing at 125-29.

ENERGY MARKETS

February Nymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates
some of the rally off November’s low but remains above the 50%
retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 99.15.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
February extends the rally off November’s low, the 62% retracement level
of the August-November decline crossing at 100.82 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.09 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last
Friday’s high crossing at 100.75. Second resistance is the 62%
retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 100.82.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.09. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 96.52.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, the reaction
low crossing at 79.50 is the next downside target. If March renews the
rally off December ’s low, November’s high crossing at 81.73 is the next
upside target. First resistance is December’s high crossing at 81.18.
Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 81.73. First support is
December’s low crossing at 79.50. Second support is October’s low
crossing at 79.35.

GRAINS

March corn was lower overnight as it extends last Thursday’s decline.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last
week’s high, December’s low crossing at 4.18 1/2 is the next downside
target. Closes below December’s low would renews this year’s decline
while opening the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at
3.99 3/4 later this winter. Closes above the reaction high crossing at
4.40 3/4 are needed to renew the rally off December’s low. Closes above
the reaction high crossing at 4.49 1/2 are needed to confirm that a
seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 4.40 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
4.49 3/4. First support is December’s low crossing at 4.18 1/2. Second
support is weekly support crossing at 3.99 3/4.

March wheat was lower overnight, as it remains poised to extend the
decline off October’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the
decline off October’s high, psychological support crossing at 6.00 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 6.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.11
1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.30.
First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 6.00 3/4. Second
support is psychological support crossing at 6.00.

March soybeans were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral
to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 12.99 1/4 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off
November’s low, the 75% retracement level of the August-November decline
crossing at 13.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 13.39 1/4. Second resistance is the 75%
retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 13.42.
First support is the reaction low crossing at 12.99 1/4. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 12.56 1/4.

 

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