Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 10

February 10, 2014 12:50 AM
 

Monday, February 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Asian and European stock markets were firmer Monday, to
start the new trading week. U.S. stock indexes were a bit
weaker in overnight trading. The world stock markets have
for the moment stabilized following the recent turmoil in
some of the world’s emerging currency markets. China’s
markets and businesses are back in play after their week-
long hiatus due to the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday.

The market place is still digesting Friday’s weaker-than-
expected U.S. employment report for January, which calls
into question how much more the Federal Reserve will be able
to taper its monthly bond-buying program, also called
quantitative easing. Friday’s U.S. jobs report follows a
downbeat jobs report in December, as well as a few other
U.S. economic data points that have been disappointing the
past few weeks.

A theme appears to be developing so far during 2014: This
year will see higher daily price volatility in many markets
than what was seen last year.

In other news, a report out of China Monday said that
country produced and consumed record amounts of gold in
2013. China is the largest gold producer and is vying with
India for the top consumer worldwide.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and
includes the employment trends index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (It’s a quiet start to the
new trading week, with no major data points on tap early
this week.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on
a corrective pullback from recent good gains, including a
bullish weekly high close on Friday. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 1,794.00
and then at 1,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at 1,780.00 and then at 1,775.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today on a
corrective pullback from recent good gains that included a
bullish weekly high close on Friday. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Friday’s high of 3,561.75 and then
at 3,575.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
3,540.00 and then at 3,525.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a
corrective pullback after recent good gains that included a
bullish weekly high close on Friday. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of 15,740
and then at 15,800. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 15,600 and then at 15,549. Shorter-term
moving averages are still bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average
is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. The
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the 133 16/32 and then at
134 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
133 3/32 and then at 132 28/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of
126.03.5 and then at Friday’s high of 126.09.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.26.0 and
then at 125.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early today.
Bears have gained a bit of downside technical momentum just
recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 80.840 and then at
81.000. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of
80.630 and then at 80.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today after
hitting a six-week high above $100.00 a barrel early on.
Bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum. In
March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $100.46 and then at
$101.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $99.11 and then at $98.59. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Traders are awaiting Monday
morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. That report
is expected by grain traders to be generally friendly for
grains and soybeans. The grain market bulls have gained
upside near-term technical momentum recently, to suggest
market bottoms are in place for corn and wheat. Wheat has
seen buying interest from concerns about winter kill in U.S.
growing regions, following recent very cold weather. Some
other raw commodity futures markets are also seeing price
strength and bottoming action, which is also a bullish clue
the entire raw commodity sector.
 

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