Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 11

February 11, 2014 12:54 AM
 

Tuesday, February 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The highlight during U.S. trading hours Tuesday will be Fed
Chair Janet Yellen’s inaugural testimony on monetary policy
to the Congress. Traders and investors will closely examine
her morning remarks. Yellen is not likely to say anything to
rattle the markets (at least that’s her hope) but the fact
this is her first speech as Fed chair will draw extra close
scrutiny from the market place. Also, some recent weaker-
than-expected U.S. economic reports will very likely have
some lawmakers asking her if the Fed’s tapering program
(announced in December) can continue.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light again
and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs
retail sales reports, wholesale trade inventories, and the
NFIB small business index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (It’s a quiet start to the
trading week, with no major data points on tap early this
week. There is a slight chance Yellen’s remarks to Congress
could cause some brief market volatility.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and
hit a three-week high overnight. Bulls are regaining upside
near-term technical momentum. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,804.40 and then at 1,810.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,794.50 and then
at this week’s low of 1,786.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and hit
a three-week high. Bulls have regained good upside near-term
technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,596.25 and
then at 3,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 3,578.50 and then at 3,565.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a
corrective bounce after recent selling pressure. Bulls are
regaining some upside near-term technical momentum. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
15,850 and then at 15,900. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 15,740 and then at 15,700.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. The bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but
have faded a bit recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 133 14/32 and then at 134 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 133 even and then at
132 28/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.31.5 and then
at Monday’s high of 126.03.5. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 125.24.0 and then at 125.20.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker early today and hit a
two-week low. Bears have gained downside technical momentum
just recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.690 and
then at Monday’s high of 80.840. Shorter-term support is
seen at 80.500 and then at 80.350. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady early today
after hitting a six-week high above $100.00 a barrel Monday.
Bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum. A
steep four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at Monday’s high of $100.55 and then
at the December high of $100.79. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at $99.50 and then at $99.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Monday’s monthly USDA supply
and demand report was deemed bullish for corn and wheat and
neutral for soybeans. Traders have quickly moved beyond that
report and are again focusing on demand for U.S. grains.
There are still rumors that China will cancel previously
booked U.S. soybean purchases, and that’s a bearish factor
for soybeans. The grain market bulls still have some upside
near-term technical momentum to suggest market bottoms are
in place for corn and wheat.
 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close