Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 13

February 13, 2014 12:22 AM
 

Thursday, February 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

World stock markets are in a pause and corrective pullback
mode Thursday following recent solid gains that have put the
bulls back in near-term technical control. While the
rebounds in the U.S. stock indexes have been impressive,
this 30-year chart watcher says beware, as the indexes could
be setting themselves up for technically bearish double-top
reversal patterns forming on the daily bar charts. In big
bull runs, many times markets prices will back down from
their for-the-move highs only to rebound strongly and
challenge those highs (or even poke to new highs), and then
back down again to form a bearish double-top reversal
pattern on the daily chart, and begin to trend lower.

A major winter storm in the eastern and southeastern U.S.
could make for more subdued trading during U.S. hours
Thursday.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the
weekly jobless claims report, advance retail sales, and
manufacturing and trade inventories. Fed Chair Janet
Yellen’s speech to a Senate Banking committee has been
cancelled due to the weather.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (World markets and the
market place is calmer Thursday.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading.
Bulls have regained upside near-term technical momentum. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at the overnight high of 1,816.40 and then at this
week’s high of 1,823.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at 1,800.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,786.50.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today. Bulls
have regained upside near-term technical momentum. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 3,623.50 and then at the January high of
3,635.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,600.00 and
then at 3,578.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls
have regained upside near-term technical momentum. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 15,900 and
then at 15,943. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 15,800 and then at 15,760. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today. The bulls
have faded but with today’s gains they do have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 133 even and then at 133 16/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132 8/32 and
then at this week’s low of 132 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today. Bulls
have faded but do have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of
125.19.5 and then at 125.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 125.08.0 and then at this week’s low
of 125.03.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is solidly lower early today and
hit a three-week low overnight. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 80.510 and then at the
overnight high of 81.750. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 80.310 and then at the January low of
80.220. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today on profit
taking after hitting a six-week high Wednesday. Bulls still
have some near-term technical momentum. A five-week-old
uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In March Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $100.36 and then at $101.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $99.40 and then at $99.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight. Thursday morning’s weekly
USDA export sales report will be closely examined by
traders, as focus is on demand for U.S. grains. There are
worries China will cancel more previously booked U.S.
soybean purchases in the near term. But the grain market
bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum to
suggest market bottoms are in place for corn and wheat. The
raw commodity market sector is showing signs of a collective
bottom being in place, and that’s a bullish underlying
factor for the grains.
 

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