Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 14

February 14, 2014 12:59 AM
 

Friday, February 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

NOTE: I am out of the office today. My friend and fellow market analyst
Ken Seehusen produced my report.—Jim


The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it
extends the rally off February’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off
February's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3872.48 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
3541.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3659.25. Second resistance
is monthly resistance crossing at 3872.48. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 3541.74. Second support is February's low
crossing at 3412.00.

The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off
February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally,
December's high crossing at 1846.50 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1785.68 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high
crossing at 1827.40. Second resistance is December's high crossing at
1846.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1793.37.
Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1785.68.

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates
some of the decline off this month's high. Stochastics and the RSI
remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the decline off this month's high,
the 50% retracement level of the January-February rally crossing at 131-
13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average
crossing at 133-10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133-
10. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 135-03. First
support is Wednesday's low crossing at 132-00. Second support is the 50%
retracement level of the January-February rally crossing at 131-13.

ENERGY MARKETS: March Nymex crude oil was lower due to profit taking
overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to
bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.79 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's
low, the 87% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at
102.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high
crossing at 101.88. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of
the August-January decline crossing at 102.69. First support is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 98.94. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 97.79.

CURRENCIES: The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this
month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that
additional weakness is possible. If March extends this month's decline,
the reaction low crossing at 79.82 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.86 would signal that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 80.86. Second resistance is January's high crossing
at 81.52. First support is the overnight low crossing at 80.11. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 79.82.

PRECIOUS METALS : April gold was higher overnight as it extends the
rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the
62% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 1335.10
is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1264.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1319.90. Second
resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-December decline
crossing at 1335.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing
at 1276.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
1264.10.

March silver was sharply higher overnight and has broken out to the
topside of a three-month old trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the
late-January low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January
decline crossing at 21.905 is the next upside target. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 19.873 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of
the August-January decline crossing at 21.150. Second resistance is the
50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at 21.905.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.873. Second
support is the late-January low crossing at 18.970.

GRAINS: March corn was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at
4.71 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 4.35 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. Closes below minor support crossing at 4.21 would open
the door for a larger-degree decline. First resistance is Monday's high
crossing at 4.49. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at
4.71 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.35
1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.21.

March wheat was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the
day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the
38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 6.14
3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 5.73 1/4 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance
is the overnight high crossing at 6.02 1/2. Second resistance is the 38%
retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at 6.14 3/4.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.73 1/4. Second
support is January's low crossing at 5.50 1/2.

March soybeans were higher overnight as it extends Thursday's breakout
above key resistance marked by December's high crossing at 13.39 1/4.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, last
September's high crossing at 13.77 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.05 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high
crossing at 13.56. Second resistance is last September's high crossing
at 13.77 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
13.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.05.
 

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