Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 19

February 19, 2014 12:41 AM
 

Wednesday, February 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Traders and investors today get a solid dose of U.S.
economic data, including the release of the minutes of the
latest meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market
Committee (FOMC). Given some recent weaker U.S. economic
data, the market place will pay extra close attention to the
FOMC minutes, to try to better discern the tenor of the
committee on its future monetary policy intentions.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes
the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly
Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs chain store sales reports,
the producer price index, and new residential construction.

Violence in Ukraine this week is getting major news
coverage. If that situation escalates, more risk aversion
could enter the market place to more directly impact
markets.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The violence in Ukraine
and some important U.S. economic reports due out have put
some more risk into the market place Wednesday.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical
momentum as prices hover not far below the all-time high.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1,840.00 and then
at the December all-time high of 1,846.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at 1,825.00 and then at 1,815.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
after hitting a 13.5-year high Tuesday. Bulls have upside
near-term technical momentum. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at the overnight high of
3,679.50 and then at Tuesday’s high of 3,684.75. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,654.00 and
then at 3,638.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls
still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
16,107 and then at Tuesday’s high of 16,135. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 16,000 and
then at 15,965. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. The bulls
are gaining some upside technical momentum this week.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133 26/32 and
then at 134 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 133 10/32 and then at 133 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today. Bulls
are gaining upside technical momentum. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
the overnight high of 126.08.0 and then at the February
high of 126.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.00.0 and
then at the overnight low of 125.29.5. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today,
on more tepid short covering after hitting a seven-week low
overnight. Bears still have downside near-term technical
momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at Tuesday’s high of 80.265 and then at 80.360.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.955
and then at 79.820. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher early today and
hovering near Tuesday’s 5.5-month high. Bulls have near-term
technical momentum. A steep six-week-old uptrend is in place
on the daily bar chart. In March Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at Tuesday’s high of
$103.25 and then at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $102.49 and then
at $102.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight, as markets paused
from recent gains that saw corn, soybeans and wheat hit
multi-week highs just recently. Soybeans are supported this
week on talk of some crop problems in South American soybean
regions. Fundamentally, improving demand for U.S. grains has
boosted the futures markets recently. Technically, the grain
market bulls have upside near-term technical momentum to
suggest market bottoms are in place for corn and wheat.
 

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