Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 21

February 21, 2014 12:34 AM
 

Friday, February 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, reports said there has been another truce
agreement between Ukrainian protesters and government
officials. The Ukrainian president said he will call for
early elections. However, there was also a truce announced a
couple days ago that lasted less than 24 hours. Violence in
Ukraine this week is getting major news coverage. Television
images have shown protesters being shot and bodies piling
up. If that situation sees violence escalate, more risk
aversion would enter the market place to more significantly
impact markets. I would not be surprised to see keener risk
aversion in the market place as Friday progresses, heading
into a very uncertain weekend in the Ukraine.

There is a Group of 20 economic and finance ministers
meeting in Sydney, Australia, this weekend. It’s likely the
group will discuss the recent turmoil in some emerging
market currencies. The event could produce some market-
sensitive developments come Monday morning.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and
includes existing home sales.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (The violence in Ukraine
this week and the approaching weekend are keeping some
increased risk in the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S.
trading. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the all-time high of
1,846.50 and then at 1,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,835.70 and then
at 1,825.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have upside near-term technical momentum as prices hover
near a 13.5-year high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at this week’s high of 3,684.75 and
then at 3,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 3,669.25 and then at 3,650.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at this week’s
high of 16,195 and then at 16,250. Sell stops likely reside
just below technical support at 16,100 and then at 16,050.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 133 even and then at Thursday’s high
of 133 15/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 132 20/32 and then at this week’s low of 132 12/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of
125.19.0 and then at 125.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 125.14.0 and then at this week’s low
of 125.11.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher again early today on
more short covering. Bulls are showing some strength late
this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at Thursday’s high of 80.465 and then at 80.600.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.330
and then at 80.220. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower early today
on more mild profit taking, and hovering not far below
Wednesday’s new contract high. Bulls still have near-term
technical momentum. A steep six-week-old uptrend is in place
on the daily bar chart. In April Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high
of $102.92 and then at the contract high of $103.29. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at $102.00 and
then at $101.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were slightly lower overnight, on corrective
pullbacks from recent good gains. Grain market bulls are
enjoying success recently as prices are near their recent
highs. Traders will be watching for fresh fundamental
information coming out of today’s USDA Ag Outlook
conference. Technically, the grain market bulls still have
upside near-term technical momentum to suggest market
bottoms are in place for corn and wheat.
 

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