Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 26

February 26, 2014 12:44 AM
 

Wednesday, February 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The Ukrainian civil unrest and government instability remain
a significant geopolitical factor for the market place.
Attention has turned from who will lead Ukraine to how will
that nation survive, financially. The Ukrainian currency,
the hryvnia, has plunged in value in recent weeks. The
Russian ruble has also been pressured significantly by the
Ukrainian crisis. The U.S., the European Union and the
International Monetary Fund are trying to figure out how to
prop up Ukraine’s financial system before it collapses. The
situation there remains fluid. The Ukrainian developments
and some civil unrest and violence in Thailand recently have
prompted increased safe-haven demand for gold.

In overnight news, there was an upbeat German consumer
confidence report. However, the European stock markets were
under some selling pressure Wednesday.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Thursday’s speech
to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee by Fed Chair Janet
Yellen. The speech was originally scheduled for a couple
weeks ago, but was postponed due to inclement weather.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the
weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential
sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine uncertainty
and recent Thailand unrest are keeping some risk aversion in
the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S.
trading today and hovering near Monday’s record high. The
bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Monday’s all-time high of 1,856.50
and then at 1,865.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at Tuesday’s low of 1,837.50 and then at this week’s
low of 1,830.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today
and hovering near the 13.5-year high hit on Monday. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s
high of 3,701.50 and then at 3,715.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,668.50 and then at
this week’s low of 3,655.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and
hovering near Monday’s five-week high. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 16,250 and then at
Tuesday’s high of 16,277. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 16,187 and then at this week’s
low of 16,110. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 133 23/32 and then at
134 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 133 even and then at
this week’s low of 132 21/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 125.28.0 and then at
126.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of
125.15.5 and then at last week’s low of 125.08.5. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
this week’s high of 80.400 and then at last week’s high of
80.465. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
80.260 and then at this week’s low of 80.050. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical momentum. A steep
seven-week-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar
chart. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at Tuesday’s high of $102.84 and then
at this week’s high of $103.45. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at the overnight low of $101.58 and
then at $101.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Grain market bulls have some
upside technical momentum. The overall technical posture of
the raw commodity sector is turning more bullish by the day,
which is supporting fresh speculative buying interest in the
commodity sector, including the grain futures. Focus will
soon turn from South American crop harvest and yields, to
the U.S. planting season and any potential planting delays.
 

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