Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 14

January 14, 2014 12:45 AM
 

Tuesday, January 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Trading activity was uneventful in Asia and Europe
overnight. Attention turns to a heavy slate of U.S. economic
data to be released Tuesday. On tap includes the weekly
Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the
NFIBs small business optimism index, import and export
prices, retail sales, manufacturing and trade inventories,
and the World Bank economic prospects report.

In overnight news, European Union industrial production was
reported at up 1.8% in November from October and up 3.0%
year on year. That’s the best reading in over three years.
This continues an impressive trend of better economic data
coming out of the Euro zone.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (There is a heavy slate of
U.S. economic data Tuesday, which could move markets.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on
a corrective bounce from strong selling pressure Monday. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,825.00 and then at Monday’s high of 1,838.30. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,809.80
and then at 1,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today
on a corrective bounce. The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at 3,525.00 and then at
3,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 3,503.25 and then at Monday’s low of 3,492.50. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S.
trading on a corrective bounce. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 16,250 and then at 16,300.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
16,200 and then at Monday’s low of 16,185. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today on a
downside correction after hitting a three-week high on
Monday. The bulls have gained some upside momentum recently.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131
3/32 and then at Monday’s high of 131 8/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at Monday’s low of 130 18/32 and then at 130
even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
 
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today on a
downside correction after hitting a three-week high on
Monday. Bulls have gained some upside near-term technical
momentum recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 124.18.5 and then at Monday’s high of 124.20.5. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at Monday’s low of 124.07.5 and then
at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today
and did hit a two-week low overnight. The greenback bulls
are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.790 and
then at 81.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 80.540 and then at the January low of
80.430. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher early
today on tepid short covering after hitting a 6.5-month low
last week. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. In February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $92.33
and then at Monday’s high of $92.88. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at last week’s low of $91.24
and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. It appears a major
market low is in place in corn. I cannot see wheat and corn
pulling in divergent paths, and with corn being arguably the
strongest market of the two, I suspect wheat may also be
close to a market low. Soybean bulls and bears are
struggling for control amid choppy trading. Corn and soybean
traders continue to keep an eye on South American weather,
which is now heating up a bit and bears extra close
examination in the coming days. I have to wonder if the
seasonal "February Break" phenomenon paid an early visit to
the grain markets this year.
 

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