Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 17

January 17, 2014 01:21 AM
 

Friday, January 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

NOTE: I am out of the office today. My friend and fellow market analyst
Ken Seehusen produced my report.-—Jim

The STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week’s
rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the 2013 rally,
monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00 is the next upside target. Closes
below Monday’s low crossing at 3492.50 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness
near-term. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 3610.25.
Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00. First
support is Monday’s low crossing at 3492.50. Second support is
December’s low crossing at 3415.25.

The March S&P 500 was higher overnight and poised to extend this week’s
rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above December’s high crossing at 1846.50 are needed to renew 2013’s
rally. If March renews 2013’s rally into uncharted territory, upside
targets will be hard to project. Closes below Monday’s low crossing at
1809.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is December’s high crossing at 1846.50. Second resistance is
unknown. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 1809.80. Second
support is December’s low crossing at 1755.00.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and
the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the
rally off December’s low, December’s high crossing at 131-12 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-16
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
December’s high crossing at 131-12. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 131-26. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 129-16. Second support is December’s low crossing at 127-23.

ENERGY MARKETS

March Nymex crude oil was higher overnight and poised to extend the
rebound off last Thursday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.91 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the
decline off December’s high, last June’s low crossing at 89.48 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 95.91. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the
decline off December’s high crossing at 97.24. First support is last
Thursday’s low crossing at 91.47. Second support is last June’s low
crossing at 89.48.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI
are diverging but have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December’s
low, November’s high crossing at 81.73 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.77 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional
weakness near-term. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing
at 81.33. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 81.73. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.77. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 79.82.

GRAINS

March corn was lower overnight as it continues to setback from Monday’s
high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average
crossing at 4.26 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March
renews the rally off last Friday’s low, December’s high crossing at 4.40
3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 4.36. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 4.40
3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.26. Second
support is last Friday’s low crossing at 4.06 1/4.

March wheat was lower overnight as it extends this week’s trading range.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends the decline off October’s high, weekly
support crossing at 5.54 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.93 3/4 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 5.81 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 5.93 3/4. First support is last Friday’s low
crossing at 5.60 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.54
3/4.

March soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight following
Thursday’s posting of a downside reversal. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally,
December’s high crossing at 13.39 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.91 1/2 would confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high
crossing at 13.30 1/2. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at
13.39 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.91
1/2. Second resistance is January’s low crossing at 12.62 1/2.

 

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