Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 2

January 2, 2014 12:49 AM
 

Thursday, January 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

NOTE: I am out of the office this week. My friend and fellow market
analyst Ken Seehusen will produce my reports. I’ll be back at work full
throttle next Monday morning. Happy New Year!--Jim

The STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it followed Europe’s lead
lower. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to
bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3516.03 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted and would then open the door for
additional weakness near-term. If March extends this year’s rally,
monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 3594.75. Second resistance is
monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 3516.03. Second support is December’s low
crossing at 3415.25.

The March S&P 500 was lower due to profit taking overnight, which
stemmed from weakness in European markets. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends 2013’s rally into
uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1804.32 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high
crossing at 1846.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 1804.32. Second support is December’s
low crossing at 1755.00.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends Tuesday’s decline.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
extends the decline off October’s high, weekly support crossing at 125-
29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 129-05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-
05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 130-11. First
support is Tuesday ’s low crossing at 127-23. Second support is weekly
support crossing at 125-29.

ENERGY MARKETS

February Nymex crude oil was lower overnight and trading below the 20-
day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 98.36 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. If February renews the rally off November’s low, the 62%
retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 100.82 is
the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing
at 100.75. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-
November decline crossing at 100.82. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 98.36. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at 96.52.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar gapped up and was sharply higher overnight. Stochastics
and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last
week’s high, the reaction low crossing at 79.50 is the next downside
target. If March renews the rally off December’s low, November’s high
crossing at 81.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is
December’s high crossing at 81.18. Second resistance is November’s high
crossing at 81.73. First support is December’s low crossing at 79.50.
Second support is October’s low crossing at 79.35.

GRAINS

The grain markets will open at 9:30 CST. Here is a recap of Tuesday’s
trading.

March Corn closed down 1 1/2-cents at 4.22. March corn closed lower on
Tuesday as it extends the decline off last week’s high. The low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends
this week’s decline, December’s low crossing at 4.18 1/2 is the next
downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.36 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above
December’s high crossing at 4.40 3/4 are needed to confirm that a
seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is December’s high
crossing at 4.40 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
4.49 1/2. First support is December’s low crossing at 4.18 1/2. Second
support is weekly support crossing at 3.99 3/4.

March wheat closed up 4 3/4-cents at 6.05 1/4. March wheat closed higher
due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this year’s
decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the
decline off October’s high, weekly support crossing at 5.92 1/2 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
6.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.00 1/4. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.27. First support
is today’s low crossing at 5.99. Second support is weekly support
crossing at 5.92 1/2.

March soybeans closed down 16 1/4-cents at 12.92 1/2. March soybeans
closed lower on Tuesday and below the reaction low crossing at 12.99 1/4
confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends
today’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 12.56 1/4 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
13.16 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.16 1/4.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 13.39 1/4. First
support is today’s low crossing at 12.89 1/4. Second resistance is the
reaction low crossing at 12.56 1/4.
 

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