Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 31

January 31, 2014 01:00 AM
 

Friday, January 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

NOTE: I am out of the office today. My friend and fellow market analyst
Ken Seehusen produced my report.—Jim

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it
extends this week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high,
December's low crossing at 3415.25 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3548.75 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If March renews 2013's rally, monthly
resistance crossing at 3668.00 is the next upside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3548.75. Second
resistance is January's high crossing at 3635.25. First support is
Wednesday's low crossing at 3454.25. Second support is December's low
crossing at 3415.25.

The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it resumes its decline off
December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral
to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low
crossing at 1755.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1815.28 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1815.28. Second resistance is December's high crossing at
1846.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1764.00. Second
support is December's low crossing at 1755.00.

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend the
rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low,
October's high crossing at 134-08 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-06 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high
crossing at 133-29. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 134-
08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132-15.
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-06.

ENERGY MARKETS: March Nymex crude oil was lower due to light profit
taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the
rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-
January decline crossing at 99.58. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 95.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the decline off
December's high crossing at 98.47. Second resistance is the 87%
retracement level of the decline off December's high crossing at 99.64.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.67. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.02.

CURRENCIES: The March Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the
RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing
at 81.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 80.94 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
First resistance is January's high crossing at 81.52. Second resistance
is November's high crossing at 81.73. First support is last week's low
crossing at 80.22. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.82.

The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the
38% retracement level of the July-December rally crossing at 134.68 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 136.17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.17. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137.40. First support is
January's low crossing at 135.06. Second support is the 38% retracement
level of the July-December rally crossing at 134.68.

GRAINS: March corn was fractionally lower overnight as it consolidated
some of Thursday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the
rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 4.40 3/4 is the
next upside target. Closes below minor support crossing at 4.21 would
renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 4.36. Second resistance is December's high crossing at
4.40 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.21. Second
support is January's low crossing at 4.06 1/4.

March wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If March extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing
at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 5.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
5.73. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 6.12 3/4. First
support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.50 1/2. Second support is
weekly support crossing at 5.00.

March soybeans were fractionally higher overnight. However, the low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is
possible. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87%
retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 12.47 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 12.85 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.85
1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 13.30 1/2. First
support is the 75% retracement level of the November-December rally
crossing at 12.59 3/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of
the November-December rally crossing at 12.47.
 

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