Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 1

July 1, 2013 01:48 AM
 

Monday, July 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Much-anticipated China manufacturing data came out Monday.
The purchasing managers’ index came in at 50.1 in June
versus 50.8 in May. Any reading above 50.0 suggests growth
in the manufacturing sector. The HSBC manufacturing PMI for
China came in at 48.2 in June versus 49.2 in May.  The HSBC
June PMI data for South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia also
came in weaker on Monday. Japan’s Tankan survey showed in
improvement in business sentiment in the latest quarter.
Most Asian stock markets fell on the mostly weaker economic
data reported Monday. Japan’s stock market did rise modestly
on the Tankan data. In Europe, stock markets were mixed. The
manufacturing PMI’s for Spain and Italy rose slightly in
June versus May. The overall Euro zone manufacturing PMI was
48.8 in June versus 48.3 in May. It was also reported that
Euro zone unemployment was at 12.1% in May. It will be a
busy week of major economic data worldwide, despite the U.S.
Independence holiday on Thursday, which will find many
Americans taking much of the week off. The U.S. jobs report
is out Friday morning, while the European Central Bank and
Bank of England monthly meetings are on Thursday. Egypt
unrest is in the news headlines again. Major riots are
occurring in Cairo to protest leadership in that nation.
Gold could be seeing some fresh safe-haven demand due to the
violence in Egypt. Reports said there has been an increase
in demand for physical gold coming from China. U.S. economic
data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing
PMI, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report,
and the Global manufacturing PMI.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have
regained some near-term momentum, but have more work to do
to suggest an uptrend can be re-established. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at last week’s high of 1,614.20 and then at 1,625.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,593.50 and then at 1,580.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. Bulls
are working to regain upside momentum, but have more work to
do in the near term to suggest prices can re-establish an
uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,928.00 and then at
2,950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,900.00 and
then at the overnight low of 2,894.25. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today. Bulls are
regaining some upside momentum, but have more work to do to
suggest prices can sustain a trend higher. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of
14,955 and then at 15,000. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 14,824 and then at 14,800.
Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today,
as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day
moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135 24/32 and
then at last week’s high of 136 4/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 134 28/32 and then at
134 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.15.5 and then
at last week’s high of 126.29.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 125.31.0 and then at 125.16.0
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading, on profit taking after prices hit a four-week
high on Friday. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.470 and
then at last week’s high of 83.595. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 83.330 and then at 83.000.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls have gained
some upside near-term technical momentum. In August Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
last week’s high of $97.82 and then at $98.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$96.07 and then at $95.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Corn was weaker
while soybeans and wheat were firmer. Friday’s USDA report
was fully bearish for corn, and that bearishness spilled
over into the soybean and wheat markets, too. The grain
market bulls have faded recently amid the generally bearish
attitudes in the raw commodity sector at present. Weather
in the U.S. Corn Belt remains benign at present. However,
this week is a pivotal week in the grain markets. Price
trends can be reversed or existing trends accelerated in
this historically critical timeframe for the grain markets.
Right now, the bears are heading into this important week
with momentum on their side.
 

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