Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 10

July 10, 2013 01:39 AM
 

Wednesday, July 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is awaiting the minutes of the last U.S.
Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, due out Wednesday afternoon.
Recent FOMC statements and minutes of meetings have been
markets-movers. Traders and investors will parse the FOMC
minutes for clues on when the Fed will start to "taper" its
monthly bond-buying program, also known as quantitative
easing. The consensus in the market place at present is that
the Fed will start to cut back its bond purchases sometime
later this year. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will also give a
speech later Wednesday, which could also be market-
sensitive. China’s latest manufacturing report was released
Wednesday and it came in on the weak side. Exports fell 3.1%
in June, on an annualized basis. A 3.3% gain was expected.
Chinese imports were down 0.7% on the year, while a 5.5%
increase was forecast. The news had a somewhat limited
impact on the market place, as the Chinese premiere said
Wednesday China will continue on its path of long-term
reform. European stock markets were pressured Wednesday
after the Standard & Poors ratings agency lowered Italy’s
sovereign credit rating. The European Union’s sovereign debt
crisis has been on the back burner of the market place for
several months, but the situation has never been fully
cleared up and could at any time heat up to roil world
markets. U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday
includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey,
wholesale trade, the weekly DOE energy stocks report, and
the FOMC minutes.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on
some mild profit taking after recent good gains. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high 1,648.70 and then at
1,672.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
Tuesday’s low of 1,636.60 and then at this week’s low of
1,626.60. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
Tuesday’s high of 2,985.00 and then at 3,000.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 2,959.00 and
then at this week’s low of 2,948.75. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on mild
profit taking from recent gains. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 15,255
and then at 15,270. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Tuesday’s low of 15,180 and then at
this week’s low of 15,130. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today.
Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 133 23/32 and then at 134 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 133 10/32 and then at
133 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 125.19.5
and then at 125.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
Tuesday’s low of 125.04.0 and then at 125.00.0 Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading, on profit taking from recent strong gains. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage
as the index scored a three-year high Tuesday. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
84.835 and then at Tuesday’s high of 84.965. Shorter-term
support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 84.310 and then at
84.065. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today and hit a
fresh 14-month high overnight. Bulls have good upside near-
term technical momentum. In August Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $106.00 and then at
$107.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $104.21 and then at $103.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly higher in overnight trading on more
short covering and bargain hunting. Weather forecasts for
the U.S. Corn Belt are calling for hot conditions and less
rain later this week and into next week. That’s now a
bullish factor that is helping to drive prices higher. With
much of the U.S. corn crop being planted late, the key
pollination stage of plant growth will now occur during the
late-July timeframe, which is typically the hottest part of
the summer. Temperatures above 90 degrees during
pollination can stunt yield potential for the corn crop.
Grain market bears still presently have the near-term
technical advantage. But the bulls are having a good week
so far. The monthly USDA supply and demand report is out
Thursday.
 

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