Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 12

July 12, 2013 02:11 AM
 

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Many markets are in a technical corrective or pause mode Friday, following bigger price moves Thursday in the wake of the latest developments coming from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. There will be more "Fed speak" Friday when several Fed officials are slated to give speeches. Asian stock markets were mixed overnight in uneventful trading.

Asian traders are awaiting Monday's China second-quarter gross domestic product reading. China's finance minister said on Thursday that his country could tolerate a slower economic growth rate. Still, at a 7.5% annual GDP clip, China is still the envy of the major world economies on growth pace. In Europe, stocks were also mixed. The Euro zone reported its overall industrial production rate fell 1.3% on an annualized basis in May. The European sovereign debt crisis has been simmering on the back burner for several months. It would not be surprising to see this major, still-unresolved issue heat up to a front-burner issue for the market place in the not-too-distant future.


U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the producer price index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today and hit a fresh six-week high overnight. Prices are hovering near the all-time high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the all-time high 1,685.50 and then at 1,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,666.70 and then at Thursday's low of 1,657.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and hit a fresh 12-year high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.

The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter- term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,060.00 and then at 3,075.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,049.75 and then at 3,025.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and are not far below the all-time high. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday's high of 15,415 and then at 15,450. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Thursday's low of 15,335 and then at 15,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.

Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today, on more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9- day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134 30/32 and then at 135 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 134 3/32 and then at Thursday's low of 133 20/32.

Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today, on more short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.24.0 and then at last week's high of 127.02.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.

Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.16.0 and then at the overnight low of 126.08.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S.  trading, on a corrective bounce from recent very strong selling pressure. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 83.425 and then at 83.640. Shorter-term support is seen at 83.000 and then at the overnight low of 82.885. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are modestly higher early today. Bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $106.00 and then at $106.66. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $105.00 and then at the overnight low of $104.36. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly weaker in overnight trading, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Focus remains on weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt. Weather firms are calling for hot conditions and less rain in their extended forecasts, including using the terms "high- pressure ridge" and "heat dome." That's a bullish factor that has helped drive prices higher this week. Today's trading action and trading action on Monday will be telling to see if a significant weather market can play out in the grain markets in the coming weeks.


 

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