Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 16

July 16, 2013 01:29 AM
 

Tuesday, July 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

There is a significant batch of U.S. economic data due out
Tuesday that could move the markets. Data due for release
includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail
sales reports, the consumer price index, Treasury
international capital data, industrial production and
capacity utilization, and the NAHB housing market index.
However, the world market place is looking ahead to
Wednesday’s appearance by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke before the U.S. House of Representatives, where he
will report on U.S. monetary policy and the economy. Traders
hope the Fed chief will offer fresh clues on when the Fed
will start to back off on its monthly bond-buying program
(quantitative easing). Many are still thinking the Fed will
do such later this year and as soon as September. However,
Bernanke in remarks last week hinted he wants QE to start to
wind down later rather than sooner because he feels the U.S.
economic recovery is still shaky. In overnight news,
European Union imports and exports declined in May,
suggesting the Euro zone will continue in economic
contraction for yet another quarter, which would be the
seventh straight. It was also reported Tuesday the German
ZEW economic expectations index declined in July.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today after
closing at an all-time record high close on Monday. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the all-time high 1,685.50 and then
at 1,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at Monday’s low of 1,670.00 and then at 1,657.80. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today
and poked to another 12-year high overnight. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 3,076.75 and then at 3,085.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 3,062.75 and
then at 3,049.75. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and are
not far below the all-time high. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at 15,450 and then at the
all-time high of 15,510. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Monday’s low of 15,396 and then at
15,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on
short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 135 4/32 and then at 135 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 134 17/32 and then at
134 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on
short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last
week’s high of 126.25.0 and then at the July high of
127.02.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
126.14.0 and then at 126.00.0 Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading as bulls are fading. A bear flag may be forming on
the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.270 and
then at 83.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 82.855 and then at last week’s low of
82.600. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls have
upside near-term technical momentum. In August Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $106.74 and then at last week’s high of
$107.45. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $105.91 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were solidly higher in overnight trading, on short
covering and bargain hunting, and on surprising drops in
corn and soybean crop ratings in the latest weekly USDA
crop progress data, released late Monday afternoon. Weather
forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt have moderated from late
last week but are still calling for warm and drier
conditions for the region, with only slight changes for
scattered rainfall. If rainfall and rainfall chances remain
only spotty in the coming days, the weather concerns will
once again quickly build in the corn and soybean markets.
Corn is at or nearing its critical pollination period in
much of the Corn Belt. Weather remains the major factor in
the grain futures markets at present.
 

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