Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 17

July 17, 2013 01:21 AM
 

Wednesday, July 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The world market place is on hold ahead of Wednesday
morning’s appearance by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke before the U.S. House of Representatives, where he
will report on U.S. monetary policy and the economy. Traders
are looking for the Fed chief to offer fresh clues on when
the Fed will start to back off on its monthly bond-buying
program (quantitative easing). Many are still thinking the
Fed will do such later this year and as soon as September.
However, Bernanke in remarks last week hinted he wants QE to
start to wind down later rather than sooner because he feels
the U.S. economic recovery is still shaky. Bernanke and the
Fed have been significant markets-movers in recent months.
European stocks were modestly lower Wednesday, on ideas
Bernanke’s remarks Wednesday will not be bullish for
equities. Asian stocks were mixed in subdued trading
Wednesday, ahead of the Bernanke testimony to U.S.
lawmakers. Other U.S. economic data due for release
Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications
survey, new residential construction, the weekly DOE liquid
energy stocks report, and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.-
-Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on
profit taking after closing at an all-time record high close
on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in this week’s high of 1,679.40
and then at the all-time high 1,685.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,666.00
and then at 1,657.80. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
after hitting a 12-year high Tuesday. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Tuesday’s
high of 3,080.25 and then at 3,090.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at this week’s low of 3,062.75 and then at
3,049.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on mild
profit taking. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 15,400 and then at 15,450. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of
15,355 and then at 15,300. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135 10/32 and
then at 135 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 134 17/32 and
then at 134 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s
high of 126.25.0 and then at the July high of 127.02.5. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 126.08.0 and then at 126.00.0
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading as bulls have faded. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
82.910 and then at Tuesday’s high of 83.270. Shorter-term
support is seen at this week’s low of 82.525 and then at
82.250. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls still
have upside near-term technical momentum as prices hover
near a 14-month high. In August Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $106.00 and then at
$107.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $105.11 and then at this week’s low of
$104.65. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed but mostly weaker in overnight
trading. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt remain
the dominant market factor in the grains. Updated forecasts
Wednesday will drive the grain markets. If rainfall and
rainfall chances remain only spotty in the coming days, the
weather concerns will once again quickly build in the corn
and soybean markets. Corn is now at its critical
pollination period in much of the Corn Belt. Grain markets
could also be impacted by today’s Bernanke testimony to
U.S. lawmakers, if other key "outside markets" are also
impacted significantly.
 

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