Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 18

July 18, 2013 01:44 AM
 

Thursday, July 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is awaiting round two of Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke’s testimony to the U.S. Congress Thursday morning,
this time in front of a Senate panel. The Fed chief told a
House committee Wednesday the U.S. central bank’s bond-
buying program is "by no means on a preset course." Bernanke
reiterated the Fed remains flexible in its monetary policy.
He also said if economic conditions deteriorate again the
central bank could ramp up its monthly bond-buying program,
also called quantitative easing. There was no clear-cut
consensus in the market place on whether Bernanke’s comments
were more dovish or more hawkish than his remarks of the
past few weeks. Still, the majority of traders and investors
view Bernanke as wanting to wind down QE later rather than
sooner. Asian stock markets were mostly higher Thursday,
boosted in part by Bernanke’s comments, reports said.
European stock markets were narrowly mixed. The European
markets have been quieter just recently. Traders and
investors there may be looking ahead to August, when much of
Europe is on holiday during the month. U.S. economic data
due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims
report, leading economic indicators, and the Philadelphia
Fed business survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in
this week’s high of 1,679.40 and then at the all-time high
1,685.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at this
week’s low of 1,666.00 and then at 1,657.80. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
after hitting a 12-year high Wednesday. The bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week’s
high of 3,086.50 and then at 3,100.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at this week’s low of 3,062.75 and then at
3,049.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls have
the solid near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at the all-time high
of 15,510 and then at 15,550. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 15,400 and then at Wednesday’s
low of 15,380. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on
more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Wednesday’s high of 135 28/32 and then at 136 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 135 7/32 and
then at 135 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
the bulls have gained some fresh momentum. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 127.10.0 and then at
127.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
126.31.5 and then at 126.24.0 Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 83.060 and then at Tuesday’s high of
83.270. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
82.760 and then at this week’s low of 82.525. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls still
have upside near-term technical momentum as prices hover
near a 14-month high. In August Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high
of $106.73 and then at this week’s high of $107.18. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $106.00 and then
at $105.11. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly weaker in overnight trading.
Weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt remain the
dominant market factor in the grains. Updated forecasts
Thursday morning are calling for better chances for
rainfall and cooler temps in the coming days. However,
recent Corn Belt weather forecasts have seen a trend of
actual rainfall amounts not meeting forecast expectations.
If this trend continues, which is more likely than not,
then a significant weather market rally is likely. Corn is
now at its critical pollination period in much of the Corn
Belt. Weekly USDA export sales data is out Thursday
morning. There has been good foreign demand for U.S. grains
recently, to put a floor under prices.
 

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