Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 19

July 19, 2013 01:44 AM
 

Friday, July 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a quieter Friday in the world market place, as there
were no major economic reports or fresh geopolitical
developments overnight. Many traders and investors in Europe
and North America are gearing up for their summer holidays,
which could made for generally quieter, summer doldrums-type
trading conditions until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday in
early September. The market place is still digesting this
week’s testimony be Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke before the
U.S. Congress. Most believe the Fed chief came down on the
dovish side of U.S. monetary policy, which is not
surprising. However, Bernanke really said nothing radically
different than what he’s already said in his recent
speeches. It can be argued the market place took this week’s
Bernanke comments as indicating the Fed will keep its
quantitative easing in place at least a little longer that
what it thought just a few weeks ago. There is no major U.S.
economic data due for release Friday.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today after
hitting a record high on Thursday. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Thursday’s record high of 1,688.30 and then at 1,700.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at this week’s
low of 1,666.00 and then at 1,657.80. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
after hitting a 12-year high Thursday and then selling off
sharply late. If prices today closed with decent losses then
a bearish "key reversal" down would be confirmed on the
daily bar chart, which would be one early technical clue
this market has put in a top. But right now the bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at 3,053.50 and then at
3,065.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 3,038.75 and then at 3,025.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on profit
taking after hitting a record high on Thursday. Bulls have
the solid near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at the all-time high
of 15,530 and then at 15,600. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 15,450 and then at 15,400.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early
today on more short covering. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 135 3/32 and then
at 135 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 134 20/32 and then at 134 10/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
the bulls have gained some momentum. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.01.0 and then
at this week’s high of 127.10.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 126.24.0 and then at
Thursday’s low of 126.19.5 Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have faded. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
83.060 and then at Thursday’s high of 83.160. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 82.630 and then at
this week’s low of 82.525. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today and hit a fresh 14-
month high of $108.65 overnight. Bulls still have upside
near-term technical momentum. In August Nymex crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $109.00 and
then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $107.73 and then at $107.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading.
Weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt remain the
dominant market factor in the grains. The latest weather
forecasts are calling for better chances for rainfall and
cooler temps over the weekend and early next week. However,
recent Corn Belt weather forecasts have seen a trend of
actual rainfall amounts not meeting forecast expectations.
If this trend continues, which is more likely than not,
then a significant weather market rally is likely. Trading
in the grain futures Sunday evening and next Monday could
be the most volatile of the year, given the
unpredictability of what the Corn Belt weather patterns
will suggest come early next week. Corn is at its critical
pollination period in much of the Corn Belt.
 

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