Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 2

July 2, 2013 01:45 AM
 

Tuesday, July 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early electronic trading,
while European stock markets were weaker Tuesday as key
economic data is awaited. It is a busy week of major
economic data worldwide, despite the U.S. Independence
holiday on Thursday, which will find many Americans taking
much of the week off. The U.S. jobs report is out Friday
morning, while the European Central Bank and Bank of England
monthly meetings are on Thursday. Asian stock markets were
mostly firmer overnight. The OECD reported Tuesday that
inflation in the industrialized countries rose slightly in
May but remains well under control. The annual inflation
rate in May was 1.5% versus 1.3% in April. A report from the
European Union Tuesday corroborated the OECD data, as Euro
zone manufacturing goods prices fell for the third straight
month in May, at down 0.3%. The lack of inflationary
pressures worldwide is one factor that works in the favor of
those central banks wanting to keep their very easy money
policies going a bit longer, before starting to wind them
down. Reports early this week say that consumer demand for
physical gold, especially from Asia, is on the upswing.
There are also reports that with the start of the new
quarter on Monday, institutional investment demand for gold
has picked up. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday
includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail
sales reports, the ISM New York report on business,
manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, domestic auto
sales, and the IBD/TIPP economic outlook index.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer again early today. Bulls
are regaining near-term momentum, but still have work to do
to suggest an uptrend can be re-established. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Monday’s high of 1,620.30 and then at 1,625.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,600.00 and then at
Monday’s low of 1,593.50. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. Bulls
are working to regain upside momentum, but have more work to
do in the near term to suggest prices can re-establish an
uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Monday’s high of 2,946.75 and then
at 2,956.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,918.50 and then at 2,900.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls are
regaining some upside momentum, but have more work to do to
suggest prices can sustain a trend higher. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 14,955 and then at
Monday’s high of 15,005. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Monday’s low of 14,880 and then at
14,850. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on
short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 136 11/32 and then
at 136 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 135 26/32 and then at 135 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on
short covering. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last
week’s high of 126.29.5 and then at 127.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.16.5 and
then at 126.08.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at last week’s high of 83.595 and then at 83.750.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.170
and then at 83.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls are gaining
upside near-term technical momentum. In August Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
June high of $99.21 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low of $97.78
and then at $97.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading on short covering.
Near-term supplies of corn and soybeans are still tight, as
reflected in cash basis levels. But USDA expects large corn
and soybean crops to be harvested this fall, which is
keeping a lid on grain market rallies. Weather in the U.S.
Corn Belt remains benign at present. It’s very likely going
to take a weather market scare in the Corn Belt in the
coming weeks to jump-start a significant rally in the grain
markets.
 

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