Friday, July 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
It’s a quieter Friday in the world market place, as there
were no major economic reports or fresh geopolitical
developments overnight. Many traders and investors in Europe
and North America are gearing up for their summer holidays,
which could made for generally quieter, summer doldrums-type
trading conditions until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday in
early September. The market place is still digesting this
week’s testimony be Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke before the
U.S. Congress. Most believe the Fed chief came down on the
dovish side of U.S. monetary policy, which is not
surprising. However, Bernanke really said nothing radically
different than what he’s already said in his recent
speeches. It can be argued the market place took this week’s
Bernanke comments as indicating the Fed will keep its
quantitative easing in place at least a little longer that
what it thought just a few weeks ago. There is no major U.S.
economic data due for release Friday.--Jim
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have faded. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
83.060 and then at Thursday’s high of 83.160. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 82.630 and then at
this week’s low of 82.525. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today and hit a fresh 14-
month high of $108.65 overnight. Bulls still have upside
near-term technical momentum. In August Nymex crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $109.00 and
then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $107.73 and then at $107.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading.
Weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt remain the
dominant market factor in the grains. The latest weather
forecasts are calling for better chances for rainfall and
cooler temps over the weekend and early next week. However,
recent Corn Belt weather forecasts have seen a trend of
actual rainfall amounts not meeting forecast expectations.
If this trend continues, which is more likely than not,
then a significant weather market rally is likely. Trading
in the grain futures Sunday evening and next Monday could
be the most volatile of the year, given the
unpredictability of what the Corn Belt weather patterns
will suggest come early next week. Corn is at its critical
pollination period in much of the Corn Belt.