Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 23

July 23, 2013 01:53 AM
 

Tuesday, July 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s another quiet, summertime day in the market place as
U.S. trading is set to get under way. Overnight, Asian stock
markets were supported on reports that China’s premier said
China’s economic growth needs to be above a 7% annual pace
in order to reach China’s goal of doubling the size of its
economy this decade. Last week, China’s second-quarter GDP
was reported at a 7.5% annual clip. The premier’s comments
suggested China will focus more on economic stimulus. A key
Chinese manufacturing report is due out Wednesday. European
stocks were lifted modestly on the China news. U.S. economic
data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson
Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the monthly
house price index, and the Richmond Fed business survey.--
Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and
hit another record high overnight. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,700.00 and then at 1,710.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Monday’s low of 1,685.70 and then at
1,675.40. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 3,060.00 and then at 3,075.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of
3,038.50 and then at last week’s low of 3,030.50. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near
last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at the all-time high of 15,530 and then
at 15,600. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Monday’s low of 15,465 and then at 15,400.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 135 22/32 and then
at Monday’s high of 136 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
135 even and then at 134 17/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
the bulls have gained some momentum. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 127.00.0 and then at the overnight
high of 127.07.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 126.26.5 and then at 126.19.5 Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading, on tepid short covering. Bulls have faded badly
recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 82.50 and then at Monday’s high of 82.740.
Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 82.130 and
then at 82.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today on profit taking from
recent gains. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. In September Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $106.50 and then at
the overnight high of $107.22. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at the overnight low of $105.80 and
then at $105.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly weaker in overnight trading.
The U.S. Corn Belt has received spotty rains the past few
days, but temperatures have cooled down significantly right
during the key pollination stage of corn crop development.
That’s bearish and is limiting buying interest across the
grains complex. Some rain chances are also in the forecast
for this week, along with non-threatening hot temperatures.
The key "outside markets" are also in a bearish posture
Tuesday morning, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer and
crude oil prices are lower. Technically, the corn and wheat
bears are in full control, while soybean bulls still
possess the slight near-term advantage.
 

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