Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 24

July 24, 2013 01:43 AM
 

Wednesday, July 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

China manufacturing data came in weaker than expected
Wednesday. The preliminary HSBC China purchasing managers’
index fell to 47.7 in July versus a final reading of 48.2 in
June, and is now at an 11-month low. A reading below 50.0
indicates contraction. Asian stock markets were pressured on
the data. The weaker string of China economic data recently
is laying the groundwork for more stimulative monetary
policy measures coming from the Chinese government. China’s
premier this week hinted at such. That would be bullish for
the raw commodity sector, given the world’s most populous
nation and world’s second-largest economy’s voracious
appetite for raw commodities. The European Union’s
preliminary Markit purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.4
in July from 48.7 in June, which is the first reading above
50.0 in a year and a half and suggests the Euro zone is
slowly creeping out of its economic recession. European
stock markets rose and the Euro currency rallied against the
U.S. dollar on the upbeat economic data. German bond market
prices dropped sharply, which suggests better risk appetite
among European investors. U.S. economic data due for release
Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications
survey, the US flash manufacturing PMI, new residential
sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering
near Tuesday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,700.00 and
then at 1,710.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at this week’s low of 1,685.70 and then at 1,675.40. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher early today.
The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week’s
high of 3,060.00 and then at 3,075.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 3,035.00 and then at
this week’s low of 3,023.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit a fresh
record high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 15,600 and then at 15,650. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at
Tuesday’s low of 15,487 and then at 15,440. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower again early today.
Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 135 even and
then at the overnight high of 135 8/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 134 14/32 and then at 134 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 127.00.0 and then at
this week’s high of 127.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 126.20.5 and then at 126.11.0 Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer in early
U.S. trading, on tepid short covering. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 82.320 and then at 82.500. Shorter-term support is
seen at 82.000 and then at 81.750. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. In September
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $108.00 and then at last week’s high of
$108.93. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $106.87 and then at $106.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading, on tepid
short covering from recent selling pressure that has corn
and wheat in deep bear markets, while soybean bulls and
bears struggle for near-term control. The U.S. Corn Belt
has received beneficial rains the past few days, and
temperatures have cooled down significantly right during
the key pollination stage of corn crop development. That’s
bearish and is limiting buying interest across the grains
complex. Some more rain chances are in the forecast for the
coming days, along with non-threatening temperatures. This
latest "weather market" in corn and soybeans has fizzled.
 

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