Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 26

July 26, 2013 01:31 AM
 

Friday, July 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s another quiet, summertime trading affair Friday
morning. There has been a lack of major, market-moving news
late this week. Traders and investors are looking ahead to
next week, when the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meets
and the U.S. employment report is released. With August
right around the corner, trading volumes in many markets are
likely to decline as summertime family vacations take many
traders away from the markets. The European stock markets
were weaker overnight as focus there is on corporate
earnings. Asian stocks were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei stock
index down and China’s Shanhai were higher. The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported Friday that
central banks in emerging market countries continued to add
to their gold reserves in June.  Russia was also a buyer,
while Germany was reported as a seller of gold last month.
The gold market bulls who have done some bargain hunting at
lower price levels recently have to feel pretty good about
the fact that central banks of sovereign nations are doing
the same. U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes
the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today on some mild
profit-taking pressure. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,688.50 and then at this week’s high of 1,695.50.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at Thursday’s
low of 1,672.00 and then at 1,666.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
on profit taking. The bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at this week’s high of 3,060.00 and then at
3,075.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,035.00 and
then at this week’s low of 3,023.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on profit taking.
Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
15,500 and then at the record high of 15,545. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 15,400 and
then at 15,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on
short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 134 19/32 and then at 135 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 134 7/32 and
then at 134 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on
short covering. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 126.22.0 and then at 127.00.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 126.14.5 and then at 126.08.0
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading and hit a fresh five-week low overnight. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 81.915 and then at 82.000. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 81.670 and then at
81.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower again early today, on more profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage, but are fading. In September Nymex crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $105.00 and
then at the overnight high of $105.63. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at this week’s low of $104.08
and then at $103.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading, on some
short covering from recent strong selling pressure. Corn
and wheat futures are in strong bear markets, while
soybeans have also entered bearish territory late this
week. The U.S. Corn Belt weather has turned benign for the
corn and soybean crops, and that’s bearish. Cash corn and
soybean basis levels in the central U.S. have collapsed
this week, which adds to the bearish tone in the futures
markets. The one bright spot in the grain markets at
present is good world demand for U.S. grains. My bias is
that there is not strong downside price pressure left in
the grain markets.
 

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