Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 29

July 29, 2013 01:29 AM
 

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It is a busy week of worldwide economic data points,
highlighted by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that
ends Wednesday and the U.S. employment report on Friday.
Most expect the Fed will leave its monetary policy unchanged
and continue to lean well to the dovish side at this week’s
meeting. For the U.S. jobs report on Friday morning, the key
non-farm payrolls figure is forecast to rise by around
175,000 workers in July. U.S. stock index are set to open
modestly lower Monday morning, based upon weaker electronic
trading in the stock indexes overnight. European stock
markets rose Monday on some better corporate earnings
reports. European traders are awaiting the European Central
Bank and Bank of England monthly meetings that occur on
Thursday. Asian stock markets fell Monday amid disappointing
corporate earnings reports. The Japanese yen continued to
rally against the U.S. dollar. Asian traders and investors
are awaiting manufacturing data from China, due out
Thursday. U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes
the Chicago Fed midwest manufacturing index, pending home
sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.--Jim
    
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today on some mild
profit-taking pressure. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,687.70 and then at last week’s high of 1,695.50.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at last week’s
low of 1,670.50 and then at 1,666.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today on
profit taking. The bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 3,073.50 and then at the
July high of 3,087.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 3,061.25 and then at 3,050.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on profit taking.
Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
15,500 and then at the record high of 15,545. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 15,450 and
then at 15,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early
today on mild short covering. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 135
even and then at 135 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 134 18/32 and then at 134 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early
today on tepid short covering. Bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 126.26.0 and then at 127.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.19.5 and
then at 126.14.5 Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S.
trading and hit a fresh five-week low overnight. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 81.815 and then at 82.000. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 81.610 and then at
81.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded. In
September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $105.12 and then
at $106.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at the overnight low of $103.87 and then at $103.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly lower in overnight trading.
Corn and wheat futures are in strong bear markets, while
soybeans bears have also gained power recently. The U.S.
Corn Belt weather has turned benign for the corn and
soybean crops, and that’s bearish. There is no threatening
heat in the Corn Belt forecast, and there are rainfall
chances in the region this week. The next weather concern
for the grain markets could be in September, with the
potential for an early frost in the U.S. Corn Belt.

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