Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 30

July 30, 2013 01:57 AM
 

Tuesday, July 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Asian and European stock markets were firmer overnight in
subdued trading, as key worldwide economic data points are
approaching fast. The highlights this week are the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday and the
U.S. employment report Friday. Most expect the Fed will
leave its monetary policy unchanged and continue to lean
well to the dovish side at this week’s meeting. Many Fed
watchers are actually looking ahead to the next FOMC
meeting, in September, at which time the central bank could
begin its much-anticipated "tapering" of its monthly bond-
buying program, also called quantitative easing. For the
U.S. jobs report, the key non-farm payrolls figure is
forecast to rise by around 175,000 workers in July. The
overall unemployment rate is expected to have declined by
0.1%, to 7.5%. The U.S. gross domestic product reading for
the second quarter will also be released Wednesday. European
traders are awaiting the European Central Bank and Bank of
England monthly meetings that occur on Thursday. Asian
traders and investors are awaiting manufacturing data from
China, due out Thursday. The European Union did see its
overall consumer confidence rise to the highest level in
over a year, it was reported Tuesday. At present, the EU
sovereign debt problems are pushed to the back burner of the
market place, but have not just disappeared. U.S. economic
data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman
Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the
S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, and the consumer
confidence index.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last
week’s high of 1,695.50 and then at 1,700.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,682.00 and then at Monday’s low of 1,677.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s
high of 3,078.50 and then at the July high of 3,087.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
3,065.50 and then at Monday’s low of 3,056.75. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at 15,500 and then at the
record high of 15,545. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Monday’s low of 15,430 and then at
15,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early
today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 134 8/32 and then at 134 16/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at Monday’s low of 133 26/32 and then
at 133 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early
today. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 126.20.0 and then at Monday’s high of 126.26.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.12.0 and
then at 126.03.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.940 and then at
82.000. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of
81.610 and then at 81.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today and hit a fresh
three-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage but have faded. In September Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $104.54 and then at $105.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $103.56 and then at $103.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering
following recent selling pressure. However, the grain
market bears are still on the prowl and have near-term
power. The U.S. Corn Belt weather has turned non-
threatening for the corn and corn and soybean crops and
that’s bearish. Cash basis levels for corn and soybeans
have also weakened significantly. The important outside
market events that occur this week could have a significant
impact on grain prices—the FOMC data and jobs report.
 

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