Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 8

July 8, 2013 02:00 AM
 

Monday, July 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Asian shares were mostly lower following
the stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday that has
bolstered notions the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to
scale back is quantitative easing of monetary policy sooner
rather than later. While world central banks scaling back
their monetary stimulus policies is read as bearish for
stock markets by many, it can also be a bullish factor for
equities as it shows the world economies are improving at a
faster pace. European stock markets were firmer Monday on
some positive developments coming out of Portugal and
Greece. Portugal’s governing party did a weekend cabinet
reshuffle to shore up strife in that country. While Greece’s
major creditors issued a report Monday that said economic
and financial conditions in Greece are still uncertain,
reports also said Greece has reached a deal with its
creditors on another cash infusion. However, at a government
short-term debt auction in Germany Monday, the yields on the
bills turned negative again. This is a clue of keener risk
aversion among the European Union investors and traders.
There has been an escalation in violence in Egypt the past
few days that has the attention of the market place. There
are concerns the violence will escalate in Egypt in the
coming days, and even worries that civil unrest could spread
to other unsettled countries in the Middle East and beyond.
Gold is seeing some safe-haven demand on the latest crisis
in Egypt. The market place is awaiting the Wednesday release
of China’s latest trade report and the minutes of the last
U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. U.S. economic data due
for release Monday is light and includes the consumer
installment credit report.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a
fresh nearly three-week high overnight. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
June high 1,648.70 and then at 1,672.30. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,626.60
and then at 1,620.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and hit
a fresh nearly three-week high overnight. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 2,978.25 and then at 3,000.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 2,960.50 and then at
2,950.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh
nearly three-week high overnight. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at 15,200 and then at
15,250. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 15,100 and then at 15,075. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on
more short covering after hitting a new contract low
overnight. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133 even and
then at 133 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
contract low of 132 2/32 even and then at 131 16/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on
short covering after hitting a new contract low overnight.
Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.29.0 and
then at 125.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight contract low of 124.11.5 and then at 124.00.0
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading, on profit taking from recent gains that saw
prices hit a three-year high on Friday. Bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 84.835 and then at Friday’s high of
84.930. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
84.545 and then at 84.25. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker higher early today and did hit a
fresh 14-month high overnight. Bulls still have upside near-
term technical momentum. In August Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high
of $104.12 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at $102.00 and then at $101.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading on short
covering. Near-term supplies of corn and soybeans are still
tight, as reflected in cash basis levels. Weather in the
U.S. Corn Belt remains benign at present, which favors the
bears. However some hotter weather is in the extended
forecast for the Corn Belt, which could become bullish.
It’s very likely going to take a weather market scare in
the Corn Belt in the next few weeks to jump-start a
significant rally in the grain markets. Grain market bears
still presently have the near-term technical advantage. The
monthly USDA supply and demand report is out Thursday.
 

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