Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 9

July 9, 2013 01:52 AM
 

Tuesday, July 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Gold prices were boosted overnight on news that China’s
inflation rate heated up a bit. China’s June consumer price
index was up 2.7% on an annualized basis, compared to a 2.1%
rate in May and above the consensus forecast for a 2.5%
rise. Gold and other hard assets have traditionally been
used as a hedge against inflationary price pressures.
European stock markets rallied Tuesday on ideas of better
upcoming corporate earnings reports. There also appeared to
be easing investor concerns about the political, financial
and economic health of the sickly European Union countries
Greece and Portugal. Meantime, Asian stocks were mostly
higher Tuesday as traders and investors in that region
shrugged off the China inflation data as non-problematic.
The civil unrest in Egypt is still a front-burner issue for
the world market place. There were no major developments
overnight, but the situation still has traders uneasy. The
crisis in Egypt could quickly escalate and even spread to
other countries in the Middle East. Gold has seen some safe-
haven investor demand due to the recent political upset and
violence in Egypt. The market place is awaiting the
Wednesday release of China’s latest trade report and the
minutes of the last U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. These
two data points are the most important economic readings of
the week. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday
includes the NFIB small business index, the weekly Goldman
Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the
employment trends index and the IMF world economic outlook
update.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a
fresh three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the June high
1,648.70 and then at 1,672.30. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,636.60 and then
at Monday’s low of 1,626.60. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s
high of 2,978.25 and then at 3,000.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,959.00 and then at
Monday’s low of 2,948.75. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh
three-week high overnight. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 15,250 and then at 15,270.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
15,160 and then at Monday’s low of 15,130. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are steady early today. Bears
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 133 21/32 and then at 134 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 133 even and then at 132 16/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady early today.
Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at 125.16.0 and then at
125.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
contract low of 125.04.0 and then at 125.00.0 Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage as the index hovers near a three-year
high scored last week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 84.595 and
then at 84.835. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 84.310 and then at 84.065. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today and are
seeing mild profit taking after hitting a 14-month high on
Monday. Bulls still have upside near-term technical
momentum. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at the overnight high of
$103.40 and then at Monday’s high of $104.12. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $102.00 and then at
$101.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading on more short
covering and some fresh bargain hunting. Recent good export
demand for U.S. grains and weather forecasts for the U.S.
Corn Belt that show more heat and less rain are near-term
bullish factors. It’s very likely going to take a weather
market scare in the Corn Belt in the next few weeks to
jump-start a significant rally in the grain markets. Grain
market bears still presently have the near-term technical
advantage. The monthly USDA supply and demand report is out
Thursday.
 

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