Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 10

June 10, 2013 01:44 AM
 

Monday, June 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

China reported weaker-than-expected economic data during the
weekend. Its producer price index fell 2.9% in May, on an
annual basis. Imports declined 0.3% in May. China industrial
production was up 9.2% year-on-year in May—down slightly
from April. Electricity output grew by 4.1% on an annual
basis in May, versus a 6.2% rise in April. The China data
continues a recent string of weaker-than-anticipated reports
coming out of the world’s second-largest economy. The data
is a bearish underlying factor for the raw commodity sector
to start the trading week. In Tokyo, the Nikkei stock index
recovered some of its recent heavy losses on Monday by
gaining nearly 5% on the day. Some better economic data out
of Japan helped to lift its stock market. European stock
markets were narrowly mixed Monday. In the U.S. there is a
very light economic report slate on tap Monday, but St.
Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard is speaking in
the morning. Bullard is a voting member of the FOMC. U.S.
economic data due for release Monday includes the employment
trends index.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded
recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,650.00 and then at
1,657.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,635.80 and then at 1,625.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage but have
faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 3,000.00 and then at last week’s high of
3,007.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,976.25 and then at 2,961.25. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded
recently. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 15,297 and then at 15,350. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 15,208 and then at
15,150. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today and
hovering near the recent contract low. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139 27/32 and
then at 140 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 139 8/32 and then at the contract low of 138 30/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today.
Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of
129.05.0 and then at 129.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 128.27.5 and then at 128.24.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S.
trading, on short covering. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
82.270 and then at 82.500. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 81.930 and then at 81.510. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls and bears are
still on a level near-term technical playing field amid
choppy trading recently. In July Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $96.00 and then at
last week’s high of $96.39. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $95.00 and then at $94.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. The key "outside
markets" are in a bearish posture to start the new trading
week, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer and crude oil
prices are weaker. The weaker China economic data released
over the weekend is also a mild negative for the grains.
Soybean bulls still have some near-term technical momentum.
Corn trading remains choppy. Wheat bears remain in
technical control. There was not as much rain as expected
in the U.S. Corn Belt during the weekend, and this week’s
forecast for the region is for drier and warmer conditions,
which is a mildly bearish factor for corn and soybeans to
start the week. Traders will closely examine Monday
morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report.
 

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