Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 11

June 11, 2013 01:42 AM
 

Tuesday, June 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

World stock and bond markets, and gold, are under strong
selling pressure Tuesday, with the yield on Greek government
bonds pushing above 10% amid a big "risk-off" trading day in
the market place. There are increasing concerns the major
central banks of the world could begin turning off their
easy money tappers sooner rather than later. The Bank of
Japan standing pat on its monetary policy at this week’s BOJ
meeting is the latest clue that the days of major central
bank quantitative easing of their monetary policies could be
limited. On Monday the Standard & Poors credit rating agency
raised the U.S. credit rating from negative to stable, in
another sign the U.S. economy is gaining steam--and which
also suggests the Fed may no longer need to keep goosing the
economy with huge amounts of fresh cash every month.
European stock markets were also pressured by rising bond
yields in the financially troubled European Union countries
of Span and Italy. Even the yield on safe-haven German bonds
crept up Tuesday. There were street protests in Turkey
Tuesday following government austerity measures to deal with
its financial problems. Meantime, the German courts are this
week deciding if part of the EU’s financial bailout
mechanism is even constitutional in Germany. All of the
above hints that the European Union’s sovereign debt crisis
could soon move from a simmer to a boil in the market place.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales
reports, the NFIB small business optimism index, and the
Manpower quarterly employment survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are lower early today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded
recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,642.20 and
then at 1,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at 1,618.20 and then at 1,605.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but
have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,975.00 and then at the overnight
high of 2,989.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,950.00 and then at 2,940.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded
recently. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 15,150 and then at 15,200. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 15,090 and then at
15,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower again today and hit
another fresh contract low. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 138
16/32 and then at 139 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight contract low of 138 even and then at 137
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower early
today and hit a fresh contract low overnight. Bears have
the strong near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 128.16.0 and then at the overnight high
of 128.26.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight contract low of 128.06.0 and then at 128.00.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have faded badly recently. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 82.000 and then at Monday’s high of
82.355. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
81.605 and then at 81.510. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Not much new. Bulls
and bears are still on a level near-term technical playing
field amid choppy trading recently. In July Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $95.00
and then at the overnight high of $95.91. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $94.00 and then at
$93.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading, on a corrective
bounce from Monday’s losses. Given the dour mood in the
overall market place so far Tuesday morning, the ability of
the grain futures markets to hold prices above unchanged is
an encouraging signal for the bulls. Soybean bulls still
have some near-term technical momentum. Corn trading
remains choppy. Wheat bears remain in technical control.
Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt will remain a dominant
fundamental factor for the grains in the near term.
Forecasts for the region are for drier and warmer
conditions in the coming days, which is a mildly bearish
factor for corn and soybeans. Traders are awaiting
Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and report.
 

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