Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 12

June 12, 2013 01:36 AM
 

Wednesday, June 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

European stock and financial markets were calmer Wednesday,
following Tuesday’s keen "risk-off" trader mentality.
Industrial production in the Euro zone rose by 0.4% in April
from March, for the third straight monthly rise. This report
supported ideas the Euro zone collective economy is on the
mend, albeit slowly. Japan’s Nikkei stock index was down
again Wednesday and is now off around 16% from its high
scored last month. The markets in China were closed for a
public holiday Wednesday. A recent theme in the market place
worldwide has been falling bond market prices (rising
yields). A German bond auction Wednesday produced the
highest yield since February. U.S. Treasury yields are also
at multi-month highs. Another theme that has just developed
recently is weakening periphery, or emerging market
currencies. The Indian rupee, Thailand baht and Malaysian
ringgit are all under serious selling pressure this week.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the
weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE
energy stocks report, the monthly Treasury budget statement,
and the World Bank’s global economic prospects report.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today as trading
has turned choppy. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in Tuesday’s high of 1,642.20 and
then at 1,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at this week’s low of 1,621.70 and then at 1,605.50. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but
trading has been choppy. The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at Tuesday’s high of 2,989.00 and then at 3,000.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,963.50 and then at this week’s low of 2,949.50. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, but trading has
turned choppy recently. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 15,235 and then at
this week’s high of 15,270. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 15,138 and then at 15,100.
Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer today on short
covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit a contract
low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s
high of 139 27/32 and then at 140 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 139 2/32 and then at
138 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on
short covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit a
contract low. Bears still have the strong near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s high of 129.05.0 and then at 129.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 128.20.0 and
then at 128.17.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading, on short covering. Bulls have faded badly recently.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.510 and then at
81.750. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of
81.230 and then at 81.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Not much new.
Bulls and bears are still on a level near-term technical
playing field amid choppy trading recently. In July Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$96.00 and then at last week’s high of $96.39. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $95.00 and then at the
overnight low of $94.46. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading, on some position
evening ahead of the late-morning USDA monthly supply and
demand report due out Wednesday. This particular report is
not expected to be a big markets mover. Soybean bulls still
have near-term technical momentum. Corn trading remains
choppy. Wheat bears remain in technical control. Weather in
the U.S. Corn Belt will remain a dominant fundamental
factor for the grains in the near term, although it has
turned more benign this week. The grain market bears did
take note of a report Wednesday that said Goldman Sachs has
predicted lower grain market prices in the second half of
2013.
 

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