Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 13

June 13, 2013 01:33 AM
 

Thursday, June 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Japan’s Nikkei stock index is in bear territory after
dropping 6% on Thursday and is now down over 20% from last
month’s high. The Japanese yen also hit a two-month high
against the U.S. dollar. China’s Shanghai stock index hit a
six-month low as Chinese investors returned from a public
holiday. Other Asian and European stock markets were also
lower Thursday, which also has the U.S. stock indexes poised
for a lower opening. The world market place continues to
fret about the major central banks of the world taking away
the easy-money punch bowl from the party. This week has seen
heightened risk aversion in the worldwide market place.
Worrisome to traders and investors worldwide is not only the
steep stock market declines in Asia, but also the sell-off
in many periphery currencies in the foreign exchange market
this week, along with recently rising government bond yields
worldwide. Savvy traders and investors are now seriously
worried that the bear market in Japan’s equities will soon
spill over into the same for the U.S. stock market. Even the
usual safe-haven assets have not been immune from this
week’s "when in doubt, get out" trader mentality. Gold, the
U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasuries have all seen
significant selling pressure this week. There is a heavier
slate of U.S. economic data due out Thursday, but the next
major market event on the docket is next Wednesday’s Federal
Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, at which time
the U.S. central bank will discuss its current monetary
policy and whether to make any changes to it. Fed Chairman
Bernanke will also hold a press conference following that
meeting. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday
includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export
price indexes, retail sales, and manufacturing and trade
inventories.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today as bulls are
fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at the overnight high of 1,611.20 and then at 1,625.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the June low
of 1,597.00 and then at 1,585.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today and hit a
fresh five-week low overnight. Bulls are fading. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,924.00 and then at 2,950.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,897.75
and then at 2,875.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls are
fading. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 15,000 and then at 15,100. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 14,900 and then at
the June low of 14,840. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer today on more
short covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit a
contract low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 139 28/32 and then at 140 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 139 even and then at the overnight low of
138 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on
more short covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit a
contract low. Bears still have the strong near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 129.05.5 and then at 129.16.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 128.18.0 and then at
128.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is lower again in early U.S.
trading and hit a fresh four-month low overnight. Bears have
downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 81.080 and then at Wednesday’s high of 81.510.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.710
and then at 80.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Not much
new. Bulls and bears are still on a level near-term
technical playing field amid choppy trading recently. In
July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $96.00 and then at this week’s high of $96.45.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $95.00
and then at Wednesday’s low of $94.46. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading, but with a bearish
tone. The risk aversion in the market place Thursday could
lead to some selling pressure in the grains as the day
progresses. Traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s
weekly USDA export sales report. Soybean bulls still have
the near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls have faded
following a bearish USDA report on Wednesday. Wheat bears
remain in technical control as bears gained some downside
momentum following Wednesday’s bearish USDA data. Weather
in the U.S. Corn Belt will remain a dominant fundamental
factor for the grains in the near term, although it has
turned more benign this week.
 

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