Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 14

June 14, 2013 01:58 AM
 

Friday, June 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Gold is seeing some mild safe-haven support on news
President Obama has authorized the U.S. to provide arms to
Syrian rebels. This will escalate the Syrian situation that
has already seen much bloodshed in that country. With U.S.
arms being provided to the Syrian rebels, many will view the
situation as a proxy war between the U.S. and Iran or
between the U.S. and Russia. Oil prices did hit a fresh
three-week high on the news. Euro zone employment fell to
its lowest level of workers in seven years, it was reported
Friday. Eurostat said the employment level in the Euro zone
fell by 0.5% in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter
of last year. Eurostat also said the annual inflation rate
in the Euro zone rose to 1.4% in May versus 1.2% in April—
still well below the European Central Banks target rate of
2% inflation. The market place is awaiting next Wednesday’s
meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee
(FOMC). Fed Chairman Bernanke will also hold a press
conference following the meeting. Traders and investors will
be looking for fresh information from the Fed on when it
will start to wind down its quantitative easing programs
that have been in place for several years. The Wall Street
Journal reported Friday that it believes the Fed will
gradually introduce its so-called "tapering" program and
that interest rates will remain low for some time to come.
European and Asian stock markets were given a slight lift
Friday, partly on the Wall Street Journal Fed story easing
worries the Fed could sooner take more aggressive action on
ending its easy money policies. U.S. economic data due for
release Friday includes the producer price index, Treasury
international capital data, industrial production and
capacity utilization and the University of Michigan consumer
sentiment survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today, on a
corrective pullback from solid gains Thursday. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at the overnight high of 1,634.30 and then at this week’s
high of 1,648.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at 1,620.00 and then at 1,610.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
following solid gains Thursday. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Thursday’s high of 2,969.50 and
then at 2,979.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,940.00 and then at 2,932.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s
high of 15,125 and then at 15,200. Sell stops likely reside
just below technical support at 15,100 and then at 15,050.
Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher today on
more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 140 23/32 and then
at 141 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 140 even and
then at the overnight low of 139 27/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher early
today on more short covering. Bears still have the near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 129.22.5 and then at 130.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 129.07.5 and
then at 129.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a four-month
low on Thursday. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at Thursday’s high of 81.210 and then at 81.510.
Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 80.710 and
then at 80.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hit a fresh
three-week high overnight. Bulls have gained the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. In July Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
May high of $97.38 and then at $98.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low of $96.42
and then at $96.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading, with
soybeans and corn prices up and wheat down. Soybean bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn
and wheat bears have the near-term technical edge. Weather
in the U.S. Corn Belt is presently benign for the markets
but will remain a dominant fundamental factor for the
grains in the near term. It is my bias that another weather
scare will develop in the grain markets in the coming
weeks.
 

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