Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 17

June 17, 2013 01:45 AM
 

Monday, June 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Asian and European stock markets were mostly firmer Monday,
but in a subdued atmosphere as the market place awaits the-
two day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market
Committee (FOMC), which begins Tuesday morning and concludes
Wednesday afternoon. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will also
hold a press conference following the FOMC meeting. Traders
and investors will be looking for fresh information from the
Fed on when it will start to wind down its quantitative
easing programs that have been in place for several years.
The Wall Street Journal reported last Friday it believes the
Fed will gradually introduce its so-called "tapering"
program and that interest rates will remain low for some
time to come. That report has given some fresh lift to the
world stock markets, which have been flagging for the past
month. There is a Group of Eight meeting of the world’s
major industrialized countries taking place in Ireland
Monday. U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes
the Empire State manufacturing survey and the NAHB housing
market index.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are higher early today, on a
corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,640.00 and then at last week’s high of 1,648.30. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,618.80 and then at 1,610.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today on a
technical rebound from recent selling pressure. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at 2,975.00 and then at
last week’s high of 3,004.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 2,950.00 and then at the overnight low of 2,936.25.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of
15,135 and then at 15,186. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 15,050 and then at 15,000.
Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher today on
tepid short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 140 17/32 and then
at last week’s high of 140 28/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies
at 140 even and then at 139 27/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early
today on more short covering. Bears still have the near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight high of 129.22.5 and then at last
week’s high of 129.25.5. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 129.14.0 and then at 129.07.5. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a four-month
low last week. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.025 and then at
81.205. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of
80.710 and then at 80.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today and hit a fresh
four-month high overnight. Bulls have gained upside momentum
recently and have the overall near-term technical advantage.
In July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $99.00 and then at $100.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $98.00 and then at the
overnight low of $97.38. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. Traders will
monitor Monday’s weekly USDA export inspections data.
Soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the near-term
technical edge. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is presently
benign for the markets but will remain a dominant
fundamental factor for the grains in the near term. It is
my bias that another weather scare will develop in the
grain markets in the coming weeks. I have lived in Iowa all
my life (the heart of the U.S. Corn Belt). In driving
across the state during the weekend I have never seen such
a high number of bare fields in mid-June, in which farmers
were unable to get their crops in the ground. The overall
crop growth also looked mostly poor for this time of year.
 

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