Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 18

June 18, 2013 01:50 AM
 

Tuesday, June 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter
dealings overnight as the market place anxiously awaits the
results of the two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
Open Market Committee (FOMC) that begins Tuesday morning and
concludes Wednesday afternoon. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
will also hold a press conference following the FOMC
meeting. Traders and investors will be looking for fresh
information from the Fed on if, when and by what degree it
will start to wind down its quantitative easing programs
that have been in place for several years. The keener
uncertainty ahead of this particular FOMC meeting arises
from the wide range of expert opinions on just what path the
U.S. central bank will take in its monetary policy. It
appears the slight majority of market watchers believe the
Fed will stand pat for the time being on its monetary
policy. However, recent slightly better U.S. economic data
has led to ideas the Fed will soon begin to lay the
groundwork for its eventual exit from quantitative easing of
monetary policy. In other news, the Euro currency got some
support Tuesday from a better-than-expected German ZEW
consumer confidence survey for June. The survey also saw
respondents reckon that German economic activity would pick
up as the year progresses. The Japanese stock market was
slightly lower in quieter trading Tuesday. The world is
keeping a closer eye on Japan’s Nikkei stock index, thinking
it could be a leading indicator of what is to come for the
other major world stock markets. U.S. economic data due for
release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and
Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, real earnings, the
consumer price index, and new residential construction.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Monday’s high of 1,640.70 and then at last week’s high of
1,648.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,632.50 and then at Monday’s low of
1,618.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,976.50 and then at Monday’s high of
2,985.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,965.75 and then at 2,950.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Monday’s high of 15,185 and then at 15,200. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 15,121 and
then at 15,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139 22/32 and
then at 140 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139 even and
then at 138 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
the overnight high of 129.10.0 and then at Monday’s high of
129.24.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 129.00.0 and then at
128.19.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading and hovering near a four-month low. Bears still
have the near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of
81.065 and then at 81.205. Shorter-term support is seen at
Monday’s low of 80.705 and then at 80.500. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today on some
consolidation after hitting a four-month high on Monday.
Bulls still have some upside momentum and have the overall
near-term technical advantage. In July Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at $98.00 and then
at Monday’s high of $98.74. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $97.00 and then at $96.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. The USDA’s
weekly crop progress reports showed the U.S. corn crop is
behind normal in development, with many unplanted fields,
which is supportive for that market. Soybean bulls still
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but
are now fading. Corn and wheat bears have the near-term
technical edge. The "seasonality" of the grain markets
shows that a critical timeframe is approaching—the first
week in July. That is a period of time where price trends
in the grain can reverse, or existing price trends can
accelerate. July will be a very important month for
determining the direction of grain futures market prices
for the next several months. As veteran grain market
watcher Conrad Leslie once told me, "In July, eyes turn to
the sky," watching weather patterns in the U.S. Corn Belt
for this important growing month for corn and soybeans.

 

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