Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 25

June 25, 2013 01:42 AM
 

Tuesday, June 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

There is a bit more risk appetite in the world market place
Tuesday. China central bank officials reportedly said
Tuesday that the cash crunch in China has been brought under
control and the recent volatility in its financial markets
was just temporary. Worries that the financial system in the
world’s second-largest economy could seize up had the entire
world market place jittery the past few days. Asian stock
markets rebounded well off their daily lows on the news,
while European stock markets saw gains. There were also
reports that several officials of the major central banks of
the world in the past 24 hours have made more dovish and
less hawkish remarks on their monetary policies. This
follows last week’s hawkishly perceived FOMC meeting of the
U.S. Federal Reserve. There was also a report in a European
newspaper Tuesday quoting an Italian bank as saying it’s
likely Italy will soon need another financial bailout
package as the Italian economy continues to suffer and as
credit in that nation is drying up. U.S. economic data due
for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and
Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, durable goods orders,
the Case-Shiller home price index, new residential sales,
the consumer confidence index, and the Richmond Fed business
survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today, on a
corrective bounce from recent selling pressure that saw
prices fall Monday to a two-month low. Bears still have some
near-term momentum on their side. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,577.40 and then at Monday’s high of 1,585.90. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,558.40 and then at Monday’s low of 1,553.80. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today on a
corrective bounce from Monday’s move to a two-month low.
Bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
Monday’s high of 2,870.75 and then at 2,885.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,830.75
and then at Monday’s low of 2,817.75. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today on a technical
bounce after prices Monday fell to a two-month low. Bulls
have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Monday’s high of 14,680 and then at 14,700. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 14,588 and
then at 14,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on
tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a
contract low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 135 22/32 and then at 136 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 134 27/32 and then at
134 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on
tepid short covering after hitting a contract low on
Monday. Bears still have the strong near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 126.17.5 and then at 127.00.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 126.00.0 and then at 125.24.0
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S.
trading, on a corrective pullback from strong gains seen
recently. Prices Monday hit a three-week high. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 82.71 and then at Monday’s high of
83.050. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
82.440 and then at 82.250. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today, on a corrective
bounce from recent selling pressure. Bulls and bears are on
an overall level near-term technical playing field. In
August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $96.09 and then at
$97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$95.00 and then at the overnight low of $94.59. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on short covering
from recent selling pressure. The grain market bulls have
faded amid the generally more bearish attitudes in the raw
commodity sector at present. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt
remains benign. However, many areas in the central Corn
Belt remain too wet, which has prevented planting of corn
and soybeans. The critical early-July timeframe for the
grain markets is approaching, and that could promp short
covering and fresh speculative buying interest in the
grains in the coming days. There is a USDA supply and
demand report out Friday morning, which will also update
planted acres figures for corn and soybeans. This USDA
report will be one of the more important ones of the year.
 

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