Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 3

June 3, 2013 01:55 AM
 

Monday, June 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The much-anticipated economic data from China over the
weekend was a mixed bag for traders and investors. China’s
official purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.8 in May
versus 50.6 in April, which was higher than expectations.
However, the HSBC China manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in
May compared to 50.4 in April. Chinese stock markets
weakened on the fresh economic data. Japan’s stock market
fell sharply again in overnight trading as it appears the
major bull run in the Nikkei stock index has ended. The
Nikkei has dropped by 17% in less than two weeks’ time. Many
are wondering if the Nikkei is a leading indicator of how
the U.S. stock indexes will fare in the coming weeks.
Meantime, the Euro zone’s manufacturing sector activity fell
at its slowest pace in more than one year in May. The Euro
zone PMI rose to 48.3 in May from 46.7 in April. Any PMI
reading below 50.0 suggests contraction. The decrease in the
rate of decline in the PMI did hint the Euro zone economy
has bottomed out and could be on the rebound. Traders and
investors will get some major economic news later this week
when the European Central Bank holds its monthly meeting on
Thursday, followed by Friday’s U.S. employment report. U.S.
economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S.
manufacturing PMI, construction spending, the ISM
manufacturing report, the global manufacturing PMI, and
domestic auto sales.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today on a
corrective bounce from Friday’s pressure. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a
bit recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,650.00 and then at
Friday’s high of 1,657.50. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,627.30 and then
at 1,620.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,000.00 and
then at Friday’s high of 3,022.75. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 2,973.00 and then at
2,961.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today on a corrective
bounce from selling pressure seen Friday. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded a
bit. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at 15,200 and then at 15,250. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 15,115 and then at 15,050.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as
prices hover near the recent contract low. Prices are in a
four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 140 even and then at the overnight high
of 140 10/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 139 18/32 and then at the contract low of 138 30/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today and
hovering near the recent contract low. Bears have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 129.13.0 and
then at 129.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 128.31.5 and then at Friday’s low of
128.24.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls
are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.385 and
then at 83.500. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s
low of 83.010 and then at 82.750. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today on short covering
after hitting a four-week low overnight. The crude bulls are
fading. In July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of $93.19 and
then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $92.00 and then at the overnight low of $91.26.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, with soybeans
leading the way with sharp gains. Wet U.S. Corn Belt
weather has caused serious planting delays in both corn and
soybeans, which is bullish for both markets. Corn and
soybean markets have become technically more bullish
recently, too. Wheat futures prices are following corn and
beans Monday morning, but the wheat bears remain in
technical control. Traders will closely examine Monday
afternoon’s weekly USDA state crop progress reports.
 

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