Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 4

June 4, 2013 01:52 AM
 

Tuesday, June 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the Japanese stock market rebounded
Tuesday following recent strong selling pressure. The
Chinese stock market remained weak following the downbeat
manufacturing data released during the weekend. The
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
reported Tuesday that inflation in the developed countries
of the world fell to a 3.5-year low in April. This supports
notions the major central banks of the world can keep their
foot on the easy-money accelerator at least a little longer.
The OECD said the worldwide consumer price index rose by
1.3% on an annualized basis in April, compared to a 1.6%
annual rise in March. It’s generally agreed upon by central
bankers that annual inflation below 2.0% is not worrisome.
It was also reported Tuesday that producer prices in the
European Union fell by 0.6% in April, which is the sharpest
drop in nearly four years. That news underscores the lack of
inflationary pressures in the world at present. Traders and
investors are awaiting some major economic news later this
week when the European Central Bank holds its monthly
meeting on Thursday, followed by Friday’s U.S. employment
report. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes
the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, the trade deficit report, the ISM New York report
on business, and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but
have faded a bit recently. The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the Monday’s
high of 1,638.80 and then at 1,650.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,630.60
and then at Monday’s low of 1,621.20. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
Monday’s high of 2,995.00 and then at 3,000.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,978.25
and then at 2,961.75. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have
faded a bit. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Monday’s high of 15,235 and then at 15,300.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
15,150 and then at last week’s low of 15,100. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are steady early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices
hover near the recent contract low. Prices are in a four-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 140 23/32 and then
at 141 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 140 even and
then at Monday’s low of 139 13/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 129.19.0 and then at Monday’s high of 129.30.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 129.08.0 and
then at 129.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S.
trading on tepid short covering from recent selling
pressure. Bulls have faded recently. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 82.915 and then at 83.000. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 82.630 and then at Monday’s low
of 82.455. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. The crude bulls have
faded. In July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of $93.39 and
then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $92.40 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. The key "outside
markets" are bearish for the grains early Tuesday morning
as the U.S. dollar index is firmer and crude oil prices are
weaker. Soybean bulls still have good upside near-term
technical momentum. Corn trading remains choppy, with stiff
overhead chart resistance holding firm. Recent wet U.S.
Corn Belt weather remains a market feature and has now
caused serious planting delays in soybeans. Wheat futures
prices are somewhat following corn and beans, but the wheat
bears remain in technical control.
 

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