Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 6

June 6, 2013 01:37 AM
 

Thursday, June 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

European stock markets traded near steady Thursday as
traders and investors awaited the results of the monthly
monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank and
Bank of England. The BOE has just announced no change in its
interest rates. Neither central bank was expected to make
any major policy announcements or interest rate changes.
Japan’s Nikkei stock index fell again Thursday, dropping
below the 13,000 level for the first time since April. In
the U.S., traders will scrutinize Thursday’s fresh batch of
U.S. economic data, but will quickly turn their focus to
Friday’s employment report, which is arguably the most
important monthly economic report the government releases.
Forecasts call for the key non-farm payrolls figure to have
grown by around 170,000 in May, while the overall
unemployment rate is expected to be steady from the previous
month, at 7.5%. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday
includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger
job cut report, and ICSC chain store sales trends.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but have
faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,625.00 and then at
Wednesday’s high of 1,632.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at this week’s low of 1,605.50 and then at
1,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage but have
faded. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
2,950.00 and then at 2,961.25. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at this week’s low of 2,932.00 and then at 2,925.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
15,000 and then at 15,050. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 14,945 and
then at 14,900. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on
more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at this week’s high of 141 12/32 and then at
142 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
140 20/32 and then at 140 even. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer again early today
on more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have
the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 129.24.5 and then at
this week’s high of 129.30.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 129.15.5 and then at Wednesday’s low
of 129.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading and hit
a four-week low overnight. Bulls are fading badly. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 82.690 and then at 83.000. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.370 and then
at 82.250. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls and bears are
still on a level near-term technical playing field. In July
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at this week’s high of $94.48 and then at $95.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $93.69 and then at $93.00. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly slightly lower in overnight
trading. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly
USDA export sales report. Soybean bulls still have good
upside near-term technical momentum. Corn trading remains
choppy, but bulls cannot overcome stiff overhead chart
resistance. Wheat bears remain in technical control. While
rains in the U.S. Corn Belt this week, including more in
the forecast, will continue to limit soybean planting
progress, this market fundamental has pretty much been
factored into futures prices and traders will now start to
look at other fundamentals more closely. Still, given the
rocky start to the U.S. planting and growing season, it
would not surprise me to see the adverse weather situation
continue as the weather could move from cool and wet in
June to hot and dry in July.
 

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