Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 7

June 7, 2013 01:41 AM
 

Friday, June 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is on hold Friday morning, awaiting the
U.S. employment report, which is arguably the most important
monthly economic report the government releases. Forecasts
call for the key non-farm payrolls figure to have grown by
around 170,000 in May, while the overall unemployment rate
is expected to be steady from the previous month, at 7.5%.
This particular jobs report holds extra significance in the
market place, with some calling it the most important U.S.
economic report in years. Reason: The May jobs data could
tip the Federal Reserve’s hand on whether or not to
continue, and for long, its quantitative easing of monetary
policy. Any reading well beyond the consensus forecast for
the non-farm payrolls number is very likely to cause high
market volatility in the immediate aftermath of the report’s
release. Asian stock markets were lower Friday and European
stock markets were narrowly mixed, with both regions subdued
ahead of the U.S. employment data. Japan’s Nikkei stock
index has now lost 20% of its value in less than a month.
German industrial production in April beat expectations,
coming in at up 1.8% from March versus expectations for an
unchanged reading. Other U.S. economic data due for release
Friday includes consumer installment credit.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today. Prices
hit a four-week low on Thursday. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but have faded
recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,632.00 and then at this
week’s high of 1,645.30. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at 1,605.50 and then at this week’s low of 1,597.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but
have faded. Prices hit a four-week low Thursday. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s
high of 2,954.00 and then at 2,961.25. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,941.50 and then at
2,932.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly weaker early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
have faded. Prices hit a four-week low Thursday. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s
high of 15,050 and then at 15,100. Sell stops likely reside
just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 15,000
and then at 14,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on
more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 142 even and then at this week’s high of
142 15/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
141 even and then at 140 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer again early today
on more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have
the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
130.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 130.15.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 129.23.5 and
then at 129.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Prices
Thursday hit a 3.5-month low. Bulls are fading badly. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 81.640 and then at 82.000. Shorter-
term support is seen at the Thursday’s low of 81.065 and
then at 81.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls and bears are
still on a level near-term technical playing field. In July
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $96.00 and then at $96.50. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low of $94.62
and then at $94.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. The slumping U.S.
dollar on the foreign exchange market is a bullish
underlying factor that is supporting the grains this week.
Soybean bulls have upside near-term technical momentum.
Corn trading remains choppy. Wheat bears remain in
technical control. With the rocky start to the U.S.
planting and growing season, it would not surprise me to
see the adverse weather situation continue as the weather
could move from cool and wet in June to hot and dry in
July. It’s likely to be an extra volatile summer in the
grain markets.
 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close