Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 10

March 10, 2014 01:30 AM
 

Monday, March 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

There was more downbeat economic data coming out of China
over the weekend. Its exports fell by 18% in February, year-
on-year, it was reported Saturday. A 5% increase in exports
from the world’s second-largest economy was expected.
China’s trade deficit in February was $23 billion, compared
to a $32 billion surplus in January. This surprising news
put pressure on Asian and European stock markets, as well as
the raw commodity sector, to start the trading week.

The Malaysian airliner that went missing over the weekend is
not being credited with significantly moving markets, but
the specter of terrorism being at blame is unsettling.

The situation in Ukraine is simmering somewhere in between
the front burner and back burner of the market place, at
present. Russian president Putin did turn up the heat a bit
over the weekend when he said he would back the Crimean
region seceding from Ukraine. U.S. and German officials
rebuked Putin over the weekend. A vote on the Crimean
secession is scheduled for March 16, and that could be the
next flashpoint in the region.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and
includes the employment trends index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation has
de-escalated but has not gone away.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.
trading today and hovering not far below last week’s record
high. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record
high of 1,891.00 and then at 1,900.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,868.10
and then at 1,860.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today and
hovering near last week’s 13.5-year high. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
3,725.00 and then at last week’s high of 3,740500. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,687.25
and then at 3,675.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading
and not far below the record high scored in December. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at last week’s
high of 16,490 and then at the record high of 16,535. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at Friday’s
low of 16,390 and then at 16,330. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today.
Bears have downside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 131 15/32 and then
at 132 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 131 even and then at last week’s low of 130 20/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Bears still have downside near-term technical momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 123.24.0 and then at 124.00.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at last week’s low of 123.10.5 and then at
123.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer early on tepid short
covering after hitting a contract low Friday. Prices are in
a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears are
still in technical command. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 80.005
and then at 80.200. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 79.780 and then at Friday’s contract low of
79.590. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today. The
bulls have faded recently to suggest a market top is in
place. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $102.00 and then at $102.50. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at $101.00 and
then at last week’s low of $100.13. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower overnight, partly on profit taking and
partly on the downbeat economic data coming out of China
that has pressured much of the raw commodity sector to start
the trading week. Traders are focusing on Monday morning’s
USDA monthly supply and demand report. The grain market
bulls still have near-term technical momentum on their side,
to suggest prices can work sideways or sideways to higher.
Focus will soon turn to the U.S. planting season and any
potential planting delays due to cold weather in the central
U.S.
 

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