Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 11

March 11, 2014 01:43 AM
 

Tuesday, March 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The situation in Ukraine is still a worry among traders and
investors and has moved closer to the front burner of the
market place. Russian president Putin has spurned a U.S.
proposal to defuse the crisis, reports said. Last weekend
Putin said he would back the Crimean region seceding from
Ukraine. U.S. and German officials have rebuked Putin, and
reports said the European Union is set to discuss this week
sanctions against Russia. A vote on the Crimean secession is
scheduled for March 16, and that could be the next
flashpoint in the region. The Russian occupation of Crimea
is a bullish factor for the safe-haven gold market.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is again on the
light side and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and
Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the NFIB small business
optimism index, and wholesale trade inventories.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation
remains a geopolitical risk in the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.
trading today and hovering not far below last week’s record
high. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the record high of 1,891.00
and then at 1,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at Monday’s low of 1,866.00 and then at 1,856.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today and
hovering not far below last week’s 13.5-year high. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 3,725.00 and then at last week’s high of
3,740.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,700.00 and
then at Monday’s low of 3,684.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
16,450 and then at last week’s high of 16,490. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at Friday’s low
of 16,390 and then at Monday’s low of 16,330. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today.
Prices Monday spiked to a seven-week low. Bears have
downside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at Monday’s high of 131 15/32 and then at
132 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 131 even and then at
last week’s low of 130 20/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today.
Bears still have downside near-term technical momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of
123.24.0 and then at 124.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
last week’s low of 123.10.5 and then at 123.00.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer early on more short
covering in a bear market after hitting a contract low last
Friday. Prices are still in a six-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bears are still in technical command. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 80.060 and then at 80.200. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.870 and then
at Monday’s low of 79.780. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady early today.
The bulls have faded recently to suggest a market top is in
place. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $102.00 and then at $102.50. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low
of $100.85 and then at last week’s low of $100.13. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly weaker overnight. Monday’s
USDA monthly supply and demand report was not overtly
bearish for the grains, but it was not bullish, either,
which has prompted some profit taking and downside technical
corrections following recent good gains. The grain market
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Focus is turning to the upcoming U.S. planting season and
any potential planting delays due to cold weather in the
central U.S.
 

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