Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 17

March 17, 2014 01:22 AM
 

Monday, March 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

A referendum Sunday saw Crimean citizens overwhelmingly vote
on secession from Ukraine and annexation by Russia. The vote
results were not surprising. The Russian parliament said it
would move quickly to annex the Crimean region. There was no
major violence during or following the referendum—just
jawboning from the West on the matter. Judging from the
market place’s somewhat surprising "ho-hum" reaction to the
Crimean vote and the situation overall on Monday morning, it
appears the matter is fading to a back-burner issue. Any
escalation of tensions in Ukraine would quickly put risk-
aversion back into the market place. Look for this week to
see the U.S. and European Union slap Russia’s hands with
diplomatic and economic sanctions.

In other overnight news, the European Union’s inflation rate
in February was up 0.3% in February from January, and up
0.7% year-on-year. The figures were below market
expectations and raises the specter of further monetary
policy stimulus from the European Central Bank, as the rate
of EU inflation is well below the ECB’s target of 2.0% per
year.

Focus of the market place is turning to this week’s meeting
of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC),
taking place Tuesday and Wednesday. Fed Chair Janet Yellen
will deliver her first press conference after the FOMC
meeting’s conclusion Wednesday afternoon. It is expected the
FOMC will continue on its "tapering" program, whereby
monthly bond purchases are whittled down by $10 billion a
month.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the
Empire State manufacturing survey, Treasury international
capital data, industrial production and capacity
utilization, and the NAHB housing market index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation has
for the moment de-escalated and has become a tertiary market
factor. That could change this week, however.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading
today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage, but have faded a bit. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,850.00 and
then at 1,860.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at the overnight low of 1,824.90 and then at 1,815.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Friday’s
high of 3,653.50 and then at 3,675.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 3,630.00 and then at the overnight low of
3,615.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
16,100 and then at 16,150. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 16,000 and then at Friday’s low
of 15,980. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 133 20/32 and then
at the March high of 134 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 133 even and then at 132 24/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 124.23.0 and then at Friday’s high of 125.00.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.11.0 and
then at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
trading, on short covering in a bear market. Prices are in a
six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears are in
firm technical command. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 79.830
and then at last week’s high of 80.060. Shorter-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 79.530 and then at Friday’s
low of 79.440. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. The bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. In April Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $99.00 and then at
the overnight high of $99.39. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $98.00 and then at last week’s low of
$97.55. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower overnight on some profit taking and chart
consolidation. The grain market bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Focus is on these things, at
present: export demand for U.S. grains, the Ukraine unrest,
poor U.S. HRW wheat conditions, and the upcoming U.S.
planting season and any potential planting delays due to
cold weather in the central U.S. These fundamental factors
traders are watching are tilting to the bullish camp.
 

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