Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 18

March 18, 2014 01:13 AM
 

Tuesday, March 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The referendum Sunday that saw Crimean voters overwhelmingly
choose to secede from Ukraine and be annexed by Russia was
not met by violence in the Ukraine. Also, the threatened
U.S. and European Union sanctions were not as tough as some
expected. These developments assuaged the market place
Monday. On Tuesday traders and investors are just a bit more
risk-averse in their trading decisions. Russian president
Vladimir Putin is set to deliver a speech Tuesday and is
likely to announce he’s adding the Crimea region to the
Russian Federation. This situation is still far from stable.
Any escalation of tensions in Ukraine would quickly put keen
risk-aversion back into the market place. The market place
will continue to closely monitor the latest developments in
the Ukraine.

Focus of the market place turns to this week’s meeting of
the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC),
taking place Tuesday and Wednesday. Fed Chair Janet Yellen
will deliver her first press conference after the FOMC
meeting’s conclusion Wednesday afternoon. It is expected the
FOMC will continue on its "tapering" program, whereby
monthly bond purchases are whittled down by $10 billion a
month. Recent U.S. economic data has been a mixed bag, which
is making it tougher for the market place to read what the
Fed’s intentions might be.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, the consumer price index, real earnings, new
residential construction and building permits, and the FOMC
meeting begins. A major snowstorm in Washington, D.C. Monday
could delay some of this data.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation has
for the moment de-escalated and has become a tertiary market
factor. That could change this week, however.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S.
trading today. The bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,860.00 and then at
1,874.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,846.20 and then at 1,832.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 3,655.50 and then at Monday’s high of
3,669.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 3,641.25 and then at 3,625.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.
trading. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Monday’s high of 16,205 and then at 16,250.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
Monday’s low of 16,095 and then at 16,000. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on some
safe-haven demand and short covering. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 133 7/32 and then
at Monday’s high of 133 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 132 24/32 and then at 132 16/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering and safe-haven buying. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.17.5 and then
at Monday’s high of 124.23.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 124.09.0 and then at 124.00.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
trading, on short covering in a bear market. Prices are in a
six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears are in
firm technical command. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 79.690
and then at 79.830. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 79.470 and then at the contract low of
79.375. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S.
trading. The bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. In April Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $99.00 and then at
Monday’s high of $99.39. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $97.75 and then at
Monday’s low of $97.37. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on some short covering and
bargain hunting. The grain market bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Traders are focusing on
export demand and the upcoming U.S. planting season. The
March 31 USDA planting intentions report is also coming into
view. It’s one of the most important USDA reports of the
year.
 

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