Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 24

March 24, 2014 01:52 AM
 

Monday, March 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the China HSBC preliminary purchasing
managers’ index dropped to an eight-month low of 48.1 in
March from 48.5 in February. This continues a trend of
weaker-than-expected economic data coming out of China and
raises the question: Will China move to use monetary
stimulus to boost its economy? 

Meantime, the European Union’s March manufacturing flash PMI
came in at 53.2 versus expectations of a 53.3 reading and a
February figure of 53.3. A PMI reading below 50.0 suggests
contraction and above 50.0 suggests growth.

European stock markets were pressured in part on the China
PMI news. However, Asian stock markets appeared little
affected on the weaker China data and showed gains. European
stock markets are still unnerved by Russia’s annexation of
the Crimea region of Ukraine last week.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict is still on the radar screen of
the market place. Russian troops over-ran Ukrainian military
bases during the weekend. President Obama is in Europe and
China this week drumming up international support for more
sanctions on Russia. A Group of Seven meeting is scheduled
to take place Monday on the Russia-Ukraine matter. Any
significant escalation of tensions between Ukraine and
Russia would quickly put keener risk-aversion into the
market place and would likely benefit safe-haven gold.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the
Chicago Fed national activity index and the U.S. flash
manufacturing purchasing managers’ index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation has
for the moment de-escalated but is still an unsettling
market factor.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading
today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s
high of 1,876.50 and then at the record high of 1,891.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,852.00 and then at 1,842.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 3,654.50 and then at 3,675.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at last week’s low of 3,633.75
and then at 3,615.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
16,300 and then at 16,350. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 16,200 and then at 16,150.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls and
bears are on an overall level near-term technical playing
field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 132 28/32 and then at 133 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 132 even and then at last week’s low of 131
24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.15.0 and then
at 123.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 123.05.0 and then at 123.00.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading. Bulls
still have some upside near-term technical momentum on their
side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 80.450 and then at last
week’s high of 80.505. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 80.1950 and then at 80.000. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading.
The bulls have some upside technical momentum on their side.
In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at last week’s high of $100.25 and then at
$101.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$99.00 and then at $98.25. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher overnight. The grain market bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Focus remains on
U.S. exports, which have been generally strong recently.
This morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report will be
closely scrutinized by grain traders. The March 31 USDA
planting intentions report is coming into view. It’s one of
the most important USDA reports of the year.
 

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